651 FXUS61 KGYX 080511 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 111 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cool quiet weather is once again expected for tonight. A cold front will move through on Friday bringing cooler temperatures for this weekend. Another warm up is expected early next week, with temperatures having a good chance of reaching the middle 70s at many locations Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... 110 AM Update... Just a quick update for the near term portion of the forecast. Minor edits to winds, temps and dew points. 1120 PM Update...Ditto to the prior update. Some mid level clouds are entering from the west over central NH, which may cause the fog to come and go. 710 PM Update... Not a lot to update at this hour other that the requisite T/Td/sky updates according to latest observations. Otherwise temperatures are falling into the 50s as the sun sets this fine, clear evening. Previously... A weak pressure gradient and mostly clear skies will portend to another good radiational cooling night. Valley fog is once again expected. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A back door cold front is expected to move in from the northeast during the day on Friday with northeast to easterly winds becoming noticeable by midday. This will keep temperatures on the coast as well as the western ME mountains down some as compared to today. However, across southern zones as well as the CT Valley, temperatures should still reach 70. This front will moisten the air mass some, and will likely bring an increase in clouds Friday evening and night with a couple of showers or sprinkles possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation will be the theme as we head towards the middle of October. A backdoor cold front will be pressing south of New England Saturday with high pressure building in from the north. High pressure slides offshore Sunday into Monday as an area of low pressure emerges off the Mid- Atlantic coastline. This area of low pressure is expected to pass south of New England, although some moisture will push far enough north to bring low chances for showers across southern areas. Monday into Tuesday heights build over eastern North America allowing for temperatures to climb well into the 70s. A series of troughs are expected to drop into the western CONUS with one trough passing to our northwest around midweek. This trough will bring increasing, albeit low chances for showers around Wednesday. Global ensembles are in relatively good agreement that troughing will continue across the West... promoting ridging in the East... favoring warm weather in New England to continue through the end of next week. Saturday is expected to be the coolest day in the extended forecast period as a backdoor front will have brought cooler air into the region along with persistent onshore flow. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with mostly cloudy skies south and more sun to the north. High pressure centers offshore Sunday allowing for winds to turn from easterly to southerly with an wave of low pressure forming near the Mid-Atlantic. Warm air advection will lead to mostly cloudy skies Sunday with highs into 60s. There is some uncertainty with the northward extent of precipitation associated with the wave of low pressure as it tracks south of New England. Current guidance brings low chances for showers across southern New Hampshire into SW Maine late Sunday into early Monday morning. Heights began to build late Monday into Tuesday with the ridge axis cresting over the area Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low 70s across much of the area Monday with mid to upper 70s possible on Tuesday. Tuesday into Wednesday a short wave will be tracking along the NW periphery of the ridge that may track close enough to bring low chances of showers Wednesday with temperatures dropping a few degrees from Tuesday. Deterministic guidance is mixed with the evolution of the 500 mb pattern around and after midweek, although ensemble guidance suggests that ridging and above normal temperatures will prevail through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...High pressure brings clear and calm conditions with valley fog during the overnight and early morning hours. A cold front moves in from the north and northeast on Friday and may bring MVFR conditions to the region, especially Friday evening and at night. A noticeable wind shift from the east will occur around midday Friday. Long Term...Mainly VFR Saturday into Sunday. Moisture will increase Sunday night bringing possible restrictions in lowering cigs and -SHRA particularly across southern New Hampshire. VFR is likely to prevail Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Light winds expected tonight as high pressure continues to hold over the waters. A cold front drops in from the north on Friday with winds shifting to the north and then turning toward the east behind it midday Friday. Some gusts into the Small Craft Advisory range are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Long Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds this weekend into the middle of next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ JC/MC