246 
FXUS61 KPBZ 080454 AAB
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1254 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The approach and passage of a low pressure system will bring periodic 
rain chances through Saturday. Temperature will remain above normal 
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Only minor changes to the overnight period. Clouds were adjusted to
better represent current model data. Overnight lows were refreshed as
well. 

Persistent upper low will lift toward the western Great Lakes today.
A weak shortwave trough will cross the area this afternoon. Models
are not showing much of a robust return in terms of QPF with this
feature so kept PoPs in the chc/schc range. With surface dewpoints
still in the mid 60s, there will be enough instability and low-level
atmospheric buoyancy to allow for some isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon. This will be enhanced with some afternoon
sunshine. 

Temperatures will again be well above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers will persist tonight and shift east with the jet/convergence
movement. Forcing and upper jet dynamics will wane with the 
weakening low Saturday, which will reduce precipitation chances, but 
the passage of the trough axis and diurnal heating should still 
promote sct showers/iso tstm through the afternoon.

Upper level ridging behind the exiting shortwave will promote a dry 
and warm Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure to the east and ridging aloft will lead to dry
conditions and above normal temperature Monday.

Long-range models show a fairly consistent pattern setup of central
U.S. trough and eastern U.S. ridge through much of next week. A 
series of low pressure systems are expected to ride out of the 
Rockies towards Ontario, the first passing the region Tuesday and
another late in the week. Assuming this holds, expect mostly dry and
unseasonably warm conditions to prevail with low chance showers
possible when a system passes to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Included a mention of IFR stratus/fog overnight for ports that 
recently had rain late this aftn/eve. Otherwise genl VFR is expected 
through much of the TAF period.

Additional shortwave support ahead of an upper low across the Upr
Midwest should result in scattered showers/isold tstms again Fri
aftn and night. Included a VCSH for most ports, with a prob30 for 
tstms at ZZV where instability is progged to be greater. 

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely thru Sat with a crossing upr trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$