797 FXUS65 KABQ 080016 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 616 PM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions for all TAF sites through Friday. High clouds will continue streaming in from the west through Friday. A weak lee side surface trough will result in southwest breezes mainly east of the central mountain chain including KLVS and KTCC once again Friday afternoon. 33 && .PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT Thu Oct 7 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Warm and breezy weather Friday will turn windy Saturday as a storm system approaches from the west. Southwest to west winds will gust up to 40 mph across southern and eastern parts of the state. Much cooler air with higher elevation rain and snow showers will arrive Sunday. Warmer and breezy conditions will return Monday before the next storm arrives Tuesday. Winds will be much stronger with gusts of 45 to 65 mph possible, especially over southern and eastern NM on Tuesday. Temperatures will plummet well below normal with rain and snow possible along and north of I-40. A widespread freeze is likely across central and western NM Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... West southwest flow aloft has been ushering in very high level moisture with abundant cirrus clouds, but in the mid to lower troposphere drier air has moved in place. The weak lee-side trough is driving moderate afternoon breezes, but these should quickly subside after dusk. Temperatures tonight will be mild and above average with the blanket of cirrus inhibiting radiational cooling. The less-than-optimal radiational cooling will also likely keep the Friday morning drainage winds a bit subdued in the middle Rio Grande valley. By Friday, the developing trough offshore of CA will be quickly moving inland with a stout 130 kt jet streak nosing its way into southern NV and UT. This will strengthen the gradient aloft over NM, and the seemingly semi-permanent lee-side surface cyclone will deepen slightly. This along with diurnal heating and subsequent vertical mixing will yield moderately breezy conditions Friday afternoon across much of the forecast area, particularly east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will gain a couple to a few degrees within the southwesterly flow Friday afternoon. The cirrus will thin and fade Friday night into Saturday morning, but increasing winds aloft could keep the boundary layer from fully decoupling with milder overnight temperatures. 52 LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A weakly-closed 562dm H5 low over southern NV Saturday will pivot eastward along the I-40 corridor into NM by Sunday. A surface low will deepen to near 995mb over southeast CO Saturday as a 35-45 kt mid level speed max approaches from the west. Southwest winds will increase to btwn 25 and 35 mph over eastern NM while temps remain well above normal in a downslope flow regime. Temps will begin to fall over northwest NM as a Pacific cold front moves into the area during the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated Saturday night as the base of the H5 low crosses the region. Temps will trend much cooler Sunday with breezy northwesterly winds. The focus for any precip will extend from the Sangre de Cristos east across the plains where the back door portion of the cold front slides south beneath the H5 low. QPF confidence is on the lower end since quick-hitting moisture is also limited with this system. Temps will be cold enough to support snowfall above 8,500 to 9,500 feet. A brief break is likely Monday as a weak shortwave ridge crests rapidly eastward over NM. Temps will trend much warmer across the area, especially eastern NM with more downslope flow. A major change is still expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong storm system moves east thru the desert southwest. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble shows a -4 stdev 546dm H5 low moving into the Four Corners Tuesday morning with highly anomalous 700mb temps. Winds look even stronger with this second system depending on where the low center tracks. Attm, southwest to west winds may gust up to 65 mph in the higher terrain south of U.S. 60 with gusts of 50 mph farther north toward the I-40 corridor. Rain and isolated storms are likely to change over to snow as much colder air moves into the area. Snow levels will fall from west to east to near 5,500 ft thru Tuesday evening. Precip is shown exiting the region Tuesday night followed by the first widespread freeze/hard freeze for central and western NM Wednesday morning. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... The active and strong jet stream will bring a couple of large scale disturbances toward northern NM through next week, a pattern that will mimic springtime with some breezy to windy periods and mercurial temperature trends. As the first disturbance moves inland over CA, NV, and UT on Friday afternoon, the breezes will strengthen over NM with scattered areas observing occasional gusts to 30 mph. The winds on Saturday still appear to increase a bit more with additional locations reaching or exceeding 30 to 35 mph gusts. Temperatures will start to cool in western NM on Saturday, but isolated areas in the eastern plains could observe a couple hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions where temperatures will climb well above average with humidity declining to 15 to 20 percent in the afternoon. Precipitation chances do increase this weekend, but the northeastern quadrant of NM appears to be the only sector expected to receive brief wetting rainfall or light high mountain snow. The focus in the extended forecast will center around Tuesday and Wednesday when the next fast-moving cold core low pressure system sweeps over northern NM. Strong to possibly severe winds will quickly arrive on Tuesday, and while cooler temperatures and escalating humidity will limit the area of traditional critical fire weather, the wind speeds alone will be of concern. Temperature guidance has moderated the brunt of the colder air arriving Tuesday night, but many locations will still have the potential for freezing low temperatures, if not Wednesday morning then possibly on Thursday morning. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$