506 FXUS63 KEAX 070850 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 350 AM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 .Discussion... Issued at 349 AM CDT THU OCT 7 2021 The main concern in the short term will be for fog this morning and the chance for showers today. This will come courtesy of a nearly stacked low that is currently centered over southern Missouri which will slowly move northeastward across eastern Missouri today. A cool, damp airmass and light winds is bring fog to the area this morning. How dense this fog gets still remains in question as stratus is keeping visibilities from diminishing. As this stacked low moves across eastern Missouri today, diurnally driven wrap around showers similar to what occurred yesterday is expected again today over the eastern CWA. Highs today will be in the mid 70s. Tonight, this stacked low will continue to push on to the northeast into the southern Great Lakes with gradual clearing from southwest to northeast. This will lead to a mostly sunny day on Friday with weak WAA getting underway and upper level ridging building into the region temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s. Saturday, continued height rises and strong WAA will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Late Saturday night/Sunday a slow moving cold front is expected to drop through CWA. This front is not expected to bring precipitation initially during the day Sunday. However, Sunday night another surface low is progged to develop along the front in southwestern Missouri. The surface low will move northeastward through the CWA on Monday. Model soundings indicate strong shear but very weak CAPE which should yield thunderstorms however, severe weather looks to be limited as storms would be expected to be sheared apart. this system will shift quickly off to the northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Tuesday is expected to remain mostly dry as a strong upper level trough moves from the Four Corners region into western Kansas. Lead shortwaves may bring storms to the area Tuesday night with another round of storms expected Wednesday as a cold front associated with the upper level trough moves through the CWA as the trough moves from western Kansas into eastern South Dakota. Despite an active pattern the first half of next week work week temperatures will still remain above normal in the 70s. && .Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 7 2021 Primary aviation concern this period will be the possibility for patchy dense fog to develop after 06Z. IFR/MVFR ceilings are starting to move into the terminals early this period with visibility also starting to decrease as light fog develops. This trend will continue, with visibilities continuing to drop overnight. However, confidence as to how low visibilities will drop is still not high as stratus deck could prevent dense fog from developing. For now have opted for the downward trend and will adjust if warranted. Fog and low stratus will mix out after 14-15Z with skies gradually clearing. Winds through the period will remain under 10 kts as they shift from easterly to more southeasterly. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ007-008- 013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. && $$ Discussion...73 Aviation...PietrychaP