728 FXUS61 KILN 062355 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 755 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Large mid-level low to the west of the region will provide a chance of showers through the end of the work week. Ridging will return for the weekend allowing warm and dry conditions into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... NAM12 and ARW seem to have the better placement of the showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring in eastern and northeastern CWA this early evening. NAM12 is a bit too generous over the IN/OH/KY border area, but a number of deterministic models also captured this feature that never really developed. All things being equal, the area of showers extending from nw of IND to e of LMK and then s through KY will become more prevalent over southern CWA towards later overnight. Overall QPF fields are impressive and likely overdone, but some few training storms and deep persistent convection with warm rain processes will easily exceed these values on a storm scale. Can not have any one place dry overnight but think that central Ohio and north of I-70 corridor will experience the better chances of a dry nighttime forecast. That is, after the ongoing storms push north and away from these areas. Temperatures will remain mild in the low to mid 60s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Despite medium uncertainty within the guidance, including high- resolution models, the overall signal is for a more organized shortwave to lift north through the Ohio Valley as the low eases north into Illinois. Have therefore maximized cloud cover and PoPs Thursday before the energy begins to shift away into the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper level low will continue to weaken and open up on Friday as it moves northeast across our area. Overall, forcing will be weak, so will expect only a chance of showers/storms. It will be warm and humid with highs in the mid/upper 70s. It is shaping up to be a warm, humid, mainly dry weekend. Upper level low will pivot away Friday night. This feature will be followed by mid level ridging over the weekend. Highs in the mid/upper 70s on Saturday will nudge upward Sunday into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Next weather system will try to move east on Monday/Monday night into our area, but will have a tough time. In fact, associated frontal boundary may not even make it to the forecast area. As a result, low PoPs will be employed along with warm, humid conditions. Above normal temperatures will continue. Additional energy digging into the Intermountain West will carve out a mean trough there, allowing mid level ridging to remain downstream over the Ohio Valley. Dry, humid, and warm conditions will persist for the remainder of the extended for Tuesday/Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Bulk of the shower activity overnight will come later and affect CVG/LUK and to a later timing DAY and ILN. Central Ohio TAF sites should remain relatively rain-free through the period. A large item of note is that the northwestward movement of cells and a closed low over MO moving to central IL is not a typical fall pattern and energy rotating through this moist airmass ahead of it looks to spark shower activity easily, and could initiate deeper convection on a very small scale. Both of which will necessitate a wide hedge to the forecast this overnight. Many models are showing a dry period today but the off chance of training storms remains a concern for any location in the CWA Thursday, not just the TAF sites. Will keep a close eye on how they try to resolve this potential and amend when something presents itself that has something to sink our forecasting teeth into. Otherwise, mid level AS will lower overnight and MVFR cigs will prevail through the early part of Thursday. The chaotic nature of the deeper moisture and shortwave energy interactions necessitated some mention of showers for all but central OH for much of the day, though it is not expected to be a washout by any means Thursday. Lower end MVFR cigs will be possible nearer daybreak in the southwest and through about noon at DAY/ILN, possibly dropping to IFR but not a foregone conclusion at this time. A light easterly wind will prevail. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys possible through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hogue NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Hogue LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Franks