187 FXUS64 KEWX 062322 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Mostly clear skies will prevail through the next 30 hours. TAF periods reflect the light changes in the diurnal shifting of wind directions in case the winds briefly reach to above 10 knots. Some slightly stronger daytime winds are projected for DRT Thursday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... Forecast remains dry through the short-term. The upper level low near AR/MO is forecast to lift northeast Thursday and Thursday night while weak ridging aloft nudges into our region from the west. There is a slight increase in dew points that is forecast to take place tonight into Thursday, which could lead to some patchy and shallow fog across the coastal prairies and plains Thursday morning. Low temperatures Thursday morning are forecast to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, with slightly warmer low temperatures Friday morning. Warm high temperatures on Thursday, forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations, with even some mid 90s along the Rio Grande and Brush Country. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Upper level ridging builds in from Northern Mexico for Friday into the start of the weekend. This should result in continued rain free and fair weather across the region. Friday and Saturday will see the afternoon highs range from the upper 80s in the Hill Country to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Expect at least one more pleasant night during Friday night into Saturday morning with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the low to mid 60s. Once the southerly flow strengthens Saturday into Sunday ahead of an upper level trough moving eastward across the Southwestern CONUS, the dew points quickly increase. This results in a very humid and warm Sunday with afternoon highs that climb into the mid 90s for many. The peak heat indices could reach around 100 degrees, including portions of the Austin and San Antonio metro areas. The latest mid-range model and ensemble guidance have come in with some better agreement regarding a weak front associated with the parent upper level trough passing across the central plains to our north. Models have the front entering the Hill Country but shows little promise to push any further south than that. However, ahead of the front, there looks to be just enough support for a broken and/or weakening line of some isolated to scattered convection for locations north and east of San Antonio. Otherwise, the greatest lift and parameters for the strongest convection should confine to the north. As the weak frontal boundary washes out somewhere across the Hill Country, expect for continued above average temperatures and humid conditions to persist through early next week. In fact, southerly winds intensify as a second and more powerful upper level trough moves across the southwestern US. This could result in one of the breeziest days we have seen in a while during Tuesday. While the trough is expected to lift well north-northeast of our region, it does look to possibly have enough oomph to drive a more meaningful cold front into Texas. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists as this system is towards the tail end of the long term forecast. For now, the end of the forecast period highlights some rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures around Wednesday due to this possible front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 64 92 64 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 59 92 62 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 91 62 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 91 64 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 94 66 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 60 92 64 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 61 92 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 59 91 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 92 63 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 91 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 64 92 65 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks Long-Term...Hampshire