923 FXUS64 KOHX 062310 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 610 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon. Southeast areas were recently upgraded to a slight risk and we have seen a few rotating cells on radar. Strongest storm is now in northwestern Cumberland Co but appears to be remaining below severe limits at this time. No wind or svr wx reports thus far. On the other side of the coin is the flood threat. Moisture axis now set up across the Plateau where appreciable amounts have occurred, particularly across portions of the southern plateau. We are expecting a stronger impulse to gain strength by this evening across northeastern AL. Energy will transfer northward across eastern portions of the mid state with another round of heavier showers and thunderstorms. It looks as though the bulk of the rainfall will occur this evening with the heaviest amounts to the east of I-65. Note however, Lawrence county was ambushed with upwards of 5 inches of rainfall yesterday. Will therefore keep the Flash flood watch going for all the current counties. There was some contemplation in regard to pulling the watch for our westernmost counties. However, given the heavier rainfall that fell prior, along with the very low ffg values, will opt to keep the watch in tact. The watch will remain in effect through Thursday morning. Otw, look for overnight rainfall amounts to range from a quarter inch west to up to 1 1/2 inches along the Plateau. Pops tonight will range from 50% west to likely to categorical along the Plateau. Moving on, the upper low will be lifting off to the north on Thursday with drier air moving in. Rainfall chances will decrease down to just a 20-30 percent chance by Thursday evening. For the near term temps, looking warmer than normal, especially with low temps which will run a good 10 to 15 degree above normal. In the ext fcst, upper ridging still expected to build into the region through the weekend. A weakening frontal boundary will bring both a brief and low percentage chance of showers for early next week. Otw, its looking quite warm with elevated heights and warm 850 mb temps. Look for highs to hold in the 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s. That equates to about 12 to 15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Upper level impulse will work northward this evening across primarily the eastern half of the mid state. Airmass is rather unstable and strong to severe storm potential will remain for CSV through 03Z. Aft 03Z, showers to continue through at least 08Z to 10Z. Elsewhere, western and central middle TN taf sites will lean toward NSW aft 06Z. Across the east, convective coverage should begin to decrease late tonight with this trend continuing into the day on Thursday. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Coffee- Cumberland-Giles-Grundy-Lawrence-Marshall-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne. && $$ DISCUSSION......21 AVIATION........21