945 FXUS61 KBUF 062034 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 434 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at least Thursday night. Temperatures for the foreseeable future will continue to average well above normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A Rex block over the center of the country will transition into an omega block by Thursday. This feature will guarantee fair weather with above normal temperatures through this period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Closed low across the central Great Lakes will begin to gradually open up on Friday as it starts to re-engage with the westerlies. As this happens, the chances for showers will gradually increase from west to east during Friday. Model consensus is in a bit better agreement, supporting likely PoPs across Western New York Friday night and Saturday. As the mid-level trough axis lifts northward, chances for showers will diminish Saturday night. Rainfall amounts will be on the light side, with less than a quarter inch of rain expected at most locations. Temperatures will remain above normal, although cloud cover will limit diurnal variation some. Friday will be the warmer of the two days, with highs in the lower 70s at most areas. Saturday will be not quite as warm with more showers highs will average in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will range from the mid 50s inland to the lower 60s across the lake plains Friday and Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main theme during the long term period will be the continuation of the well above normal warmth, with plenty of dry time built in. On Sunday, mid and upper level ridging will be found on our western flank from the lower Mississippi Valley northward to the central Great Lakes, and on our eastern periphery stretching from the western Atlantic northward into Maine/eastern Quebec. That leaves our area sandwiched in between these two features with a weakening mid/upper level trough passing over our area to close out the weekend. At the surface, clockwise flow around high pressure centered near the Gulf of Maine and counterclockwise flow around low pressure moving slowly northeastward near the Delmarva will keep a moist southeasterly low level flow established across our forecast area. Weak forcing and moisture associated with the latter two features will combine to bring a chance for a few showers, tapering off from west to east through the day. Ridging that was to our west will then build east across the area for the first part of the new work week, providing mainly dry and warm conditions across the area. A weak mid/upper level shortwave is then progged to ride along the periphery of the ridge, bringing the chance for a shower toward mid week. Otherwise as eluded to above, expect well above average temperatures to continue, with daytime highs mainly ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s right through the period. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cigs of 2500 to 3500 ft will be found across the bulk of western and north central New York late this afternoon. While cigs will thin out into early evening...a strato-cu deck will develop over much of the region later tonight. There could even be a period of IFR cigs across the Southern Tier after 09z. Conditions will improve Thursday morning to include mainly VFR weather at most TAF sites by midday. Outlook... Friday...VFR but with a chance of showers far west. Saturday...MVFR with scattered showers. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Northeast to east winds below 15 knots expected through tonight. Small craft headlines are not anticipated, though choppy conditions will remain from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay along Lake Ontario and south of Dunkirk along Lake Erie before subsiding tonight. Northeast to east winds less than 20 knots are expected on the lower Great Lakes through the end of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...Apffel LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...RSH MARINE...PP