199 FXUS64 KSHV 062002 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/ The cut off upper-level low driving northerly surface winds into the Ark-La-Tex for the past several days will continue to gradually shift northward across the Mississippi River valley, picking up northward speed as it reaches the Midwest by the end of the week. In the process of its movement, instability for convection will leave with it, allowing remaining chances of precipitation to diminish nearly completely through the next 36 hours. Light surface winds will veer overnight and gain a southerly component, however, low temperatures will remain in the upper 50s and lower 60s with clear skies and patchy fog possible, especially in the Ouachita River Valley. By tomorrow, our slight warming trend continues with southwesterly surface winds and virtually no precipitation anticipated, boosting afternoon temperatures to the 90-degree mark nearly area wide. The same upper-level ridging that shoves the lingering upper-level low out of the area will maintain light winds and clear skies as it arrives on Thursday night. Low temperatures will be slightly milder, with lower 50s in our northern zones and temperatures approaching the mid-60s in southern and western zones. /16/ .LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday Night/ Quiet weather and seasonably warm temperatures are still anticipated for the Friday through Sunday period as an upper level ridge axis remains planted over the Four State region. The only clouds Friday and Saturday will generally be of the high and thin cirrus type, although some patches of low clouds and shallow fog cannot be ruled out early Friday and Saturday mornings. Despite daytime temperatures peaking in a range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, it will not feel terribly bad either of those days because of the lack of much humidity. With the lack of humidity and substantial rainfall over the last few months, especially in western portions of the Arklatex, fire weather would be of some concern if the winds were higher than we anticipate. We will continue to monitor this situation, but don't anticipate a problem at this juncture. On Sunday low level moisture will begin to increase as southerly flow gets going ahead of a disturbance approaching for Sunday night into Monday. Model consensus is pretty good that the disturbance glancing our region in southwest flow aloft should bring enough moisture/lift/instability ingredients to promote decent chances for showers and storms in our northwestern zones. However, farther east into the region, the confidence of these ingredients and the arrival of an associated frontal boundary is more in question and the chances of rainfall generally less. There is also an increasing signal in models that the front getting edged into our region by the first disturbance could be a focus for additional showers and storms in northwestern zones Monday night into Tuesday as the boundary slowly retreats north in advance of another disturbance likely glancing the region late next week. With confidence increasing that this front will very likely not clear the region, we anticipate the continuation of above average temperatures and relatively high humidities from Sunday through at least the middle of next week. At this juncture the risk of heavy rainfall from this scenario early next week is pretty low and really just limited to far northwest zones. One aspect to monitor closely is just how much of a glancing blow the disturbance will yield in our region. The most-bullish operational GFS depicts enough shear and instability ingredients to not be able to rule out a severe weather concern in northwestern zones if that solution were able to materialize. However, with the general ensemble consensus being far less bullish, we will forgo advertising any severe weather potential for now and continue to monitor trends. /50/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1206 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ AVIATION... For the 06/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected to prevail through the period with only a few potential exceptions in parts of our airspace. The first of which involves a slight chance for VCTS/TSRA near and north of KTXK from 06/18Z until 07/00Z. The second exception involves patchy FG in our far eastern airspace, south of KMLU by 07/12Z to 07/15Z. Surface winds will gradually veer from northerly to southwesterly by the end of the period. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 62 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 61 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 57 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 62 87 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 59 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 61 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 59 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 61 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 16/50/16