403 
FXUS61 KILN 061940
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Large mid-level low to the west of the region will provide a
chance of showers through the end of the work week. Ridging will
return for the weekend allowing warm and dry conditions into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Overall pattern consists of a closed low well to the southwest 
of the region with very weak lift in our CWA due to pieces of 
energy rotating around the low. Have limited PoPs this evening
through the overnight to chance range over most areas, with 
likely PoPs to the southwest closest to the system. Within this 
general forecast, it is likely a few areas will see short 
periods of precipitation as showers move from southeast to 
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Despite medium uncertainty within the guidance, including high-
resolution models, the overall signal is for a more organized
shortwave to lift north through the Ohio Valley as the low eases
north into Illinois. Have therefore maximized cloud cover and PoPs
Thursday before the energy begins to shift away into the Great 
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley Thursday night. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level low will continue to weaken and open up on Friday as 
it moves northeast across our area. Overall, forcing will be weak, 
so will expect only a chance of showers/storms. It will be warm and 
humid with highs in the mid/upper 70s. 

It is shaping up to be a warm, humid, mainly dry weekend. Upper 
level low will pivot away Friday night. This feature will be 
followed by mid level ridging over the weekend. Highs in the 
mid/upper 70s on Saturday will nudge upward Sunday into the upper 
70s/lower 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. 

Next weather system will try to move east on Monday/Monday night 
into our area, but will have a tough time. In fact, associated 
frontal boundary may not even make it to the forecast area. As a 
result, low PoPs will be employed along with warm, humid conditions. 
Above normal temperatures will continue. 

Additional energy digging into the Intermountain West will carve out 
a mean trough there, allowing mid level ridging to remain downstream 
over the Ohio Valley. Dry, humid, and warm conditions will persist 
for the remainder of the extended for Tuesday/Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Will continue to see scattered showers this afternoon through
tonight associated with a mid-level low over Arkansas. VFR
conditions are likely during this time due to the limited nature
of the rainfall.

However, there is a strong signal for MVFR and IFR ceilings 
developing late tonight into tomorrow morning as deeper moisture
and higher shower coverage moves into the TAF sites. While
guidance showed more widespread IFR-level stratus, have decided
to limit coverage to the location of the best chance for
showers.

Winds will be rather light out of the east through the period.

OUTLOOK... MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys possible through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hogue
NEAR TERM...Hogue
SHORT TERM...Hogue
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hogue