401 FXUS61 KCLE 061933 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 333 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low drifting northward from the lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes will keep the area unsettled through Saturday. Upper ridge builds in later in the weekend with a drying period into Monday. Above normal temperatures through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Upper level low over the lower Mississippi Valley will drift northward into the middle part of the valley, resulting in a south to north flow through the Ohio Valley and into the southern Great Lakes. Currently in a mild pattern for the region, with hints of summer still, given the moisture present in the column. This is exhibiting higher humidity throughout most of it, along with above normal surface temperatures in the warm surface flow. With modest elevated instability, will be poised for somewhat easy generation of showers with isolated thunder above the boundary layer in the near term. Should only take weak forcing to generate the activity with ripples in the flow aloft, and a more defined trough axis at 500mb into Thursday, but overall, the forcing may be somewhat hard to come by. In the end, cloud cover will be variable, convection should be weak, isolated to scattered, slightly diurnally enhanced, and right now, there are no worries for excessive amounts of rainfall at any given time. POPs will be on the increase overnight from west to east generally and will se area wide 70s again on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A nearly closed upper low near CHI early Friday will open and lift northeast into Ontario by late Saturday night. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region Friday as the trough lifts through the region. Diurnal heating will enhance convection Friday afternoon with waning activity after sundown. Showers and Storms will be less likely Saturday west of I-71 as the forcing aloft shifts east but a good chance will remain especially over nw PA. Above normal temperatures are expected with highs from 65 to 80 and lows only near 60. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A sharp shortwave ridge will build across the region Sunday into early Tuesday and support much above normal temperatures. Somewhat meridional flow west of the region on Monday and Tuesday will track a short wave across the western Great Lakes with a trailing weak cold front expected to move into the region late Tuesday night or Wednesday. High temperatures will warm to upper 70s to mid 80s over the region Sunday and Monday with 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Generally dry conditions are expected with the chance for rain below 20 Percent. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... The low stratus that anchored in place overnight has made a slow westward retreat through the morning and afternoon hours, and some slow improvement in the ceilings should continue. TOL/FDY will likely be the last terminals to get out of the IFR/MVFR, and should take a few more hours to do so as the cloud deck lifts/scatters. Basically dealing with a very humid column in the atmosphere, and while we get away from ceiling restrictions for a period of time, it would not take much for a return to MVFR/IFR. Meanwhile, an upper level low to the southwest keeps the column humid and slightly unstable, with some scattered showers possible, more so over the western zones. Using primarily VCSH, but brief shower activity could result in a drop in ceiling height. Mist is possible in late overnight development as well. Outlook...Non-VFR possible within showers and isolated thunderstorms for the end of the week. && .MARINE... Fairly tranquil conditions are expected to continue through the weekend on Lake Erie with winds generally in the 5-15 knot range. Winds from the northeast will gradually veer to the east then southeast and finally south after a warm front lifts north of the lake Friday night. Southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots will prevail Saturday afternoon into Monday as the region remains in the warm sector. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...LaPlante LONG TERM...LaPlante AVIATION...26 MARINE...LaPlante