312 
FXUS64 KLCH 061932
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
232 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday night]...
Wx map shows high pressure ridging south-southwest across the Central
and Eastern U.S. over our region, yielding light northerly winds.
The upper air pattern dominated by the large cut off mid to upper
level low over centered over AR and swirling over most of the
central U.S. Local radar showing no precipitation across our 
region. Satellite and sfc observations showing few to scattered 
cloud layer around 4500-5000ft. Afternoon temperatures in the 
lower to mid 80s, likely to rise another couple of degrees. Mostly
clear skies and light winds expected by sunset. Lows in the lower
to mid 60s. With the calm winds, clear skies and radiational 
cooling, patchy fog towards daybreak possible along and north of 
the I-10 corridor.

For Thursday, a larger mid to upper level trough over the Western
U.S. will continue westward, which will continue lifting the mid
to upper level cutoff low northward. This will not change our
weather much, as this will still keep our region under the dry
northwest flow aloft through Friday night. Thus, no precipitation
expected, with only slowly moderating temperatures as the surface
high moves slowly east. 

DML

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]... 

The forecast for the long term has not changed significantly over 
the past 24 hours. The first half of the period will be dominated by 
high pressure over the region leading to mostly light winds, low 
cloud cover, and very low precipitation chances. Temperatures will 
remain very warm with highs generally in the upper 80s and lows in 
the 60s. Although lows will likely increase to the upper 60s and low 
70s by the second half of the period as moisture levels start to 
increase.

The high pressure over the region will likely shift east of our area 
late in the period. A frontal system will make its way across the 
Central U.S. late in the weekend into the early part of next week 
and may impact our area Monday and Tuesday. However, chances for 
precipitation are currently low. The GFS has modest rainfall 
accumulation in our area Monday and Tuesday whereas the ECMWF is 
keeping the bulk of the accumulation further northwest of our area 
during the same timeframe. The trend for the models over the past 24 
hours has focused the precipitation more towards northwestern parts 
of our area.

55

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will prevail across the region through the end of 
the week, allowing for mainly light offshore winds and low seas. 
The high will move off to the east during the weekend, with
onshore winds developing and persisting into early next week.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  64  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0 
LFT  65  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0 
BPT  64  87  64  87 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$