896 FXUS61 KOKX 061928 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 328 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Thursday night. A backdoor cold frontal passage is possible late Friday. Otherwise, a broad area of high pressure is expected to remain over the area into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... High pressure will be centered over the Northeast. Some moisture will remain trapped beneath a subsidence inversion beneath 850mb, primarily over the western half of the forecast area. With light to calm winds, good radiational cooling is expected over some eastern areas where fewer clouds will be. Patchy fog potentially develops late at night for these eastern zones as well. A wide range of low temperatures is anticipated due to the varying cloud cover. Lows probably fall into the mid 40s in the Pine Barrens Region of eastern LI, and around 50 over interior eastern CT. Low 50s to low 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The inversion remains over the region Thursday and Thursday night, but models generally agree that there will be overall less moisture beneath it compared to tonight. Once again, western zones will have more in the way of moisture and cloud cover, but probably more breaks of sunshine versus today. Highs in the low to mid 70s. High pressure then keeps us dry Thursday night, and low temperatures will be warmer this time around. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A low 1020s high drifts offshore on Fri, with lgt winds and fair wx. Time heights indicate some cirrus as well as some sct clouds around 4000 ft. Temps abv normal, but a backdoor cold front is expected to pass thru by the end of the day, capping temps. Right now, low 70s east and near 80 west. Nely flow picks up Fri ngt behind the front, advecting in some cooler air. Highs on Sat mainly in the 60s along with bkn-ovc skies. There could be a sprinkle or shwr with the fropa per the NAM/GFS, but the NBM was followed for now which keeps the fcst dry Fri and Fri ngt. A better chance for shwrs by Sat aftn with steepening lapse rates. Ridging will remain over the area thru next Tue. A coastal low late Sun into Mon will need to be watched, but the fcst track is too far e attm. The blended approach still gives low chcs for shwrs however, which has been used for the fcst. There is the potential for it to remain totally dry Sun-Tue. A frontal sys may approach the area for Wed. Low confidence in the timing with the h5 ridge in place, so a slower, drier fcst seems reasonable. Temps thru the extended generally abv avg and close to the NBM. A warming trend Mon-Tue with temps possibly approaching 80 in the usual hot spots. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure remains over the terminals through Thursday. Mainly VFR conditions, but for the first half of this afternoon the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals may have occasional MVFR ceilings. Patchy MVFR or IFR visibilities are possible at the outlying terminals early Thursday morning, but only mention at this time is at KSWF due to low confidence elsewhere. Light northerly winds this afternoon could shift to the SE-S along the coast. However, confidence in exact wind direction is low and could end up variable this afternoon. Light and variable winds will then continue into Thursday morning before becoming W/SW around 5 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... The timing of improvement to VFR may be off by +/- 1-2 hours. High confidence in wind speeds around 5 kt or less through this evening. Lower confidence in exact wind direction, which may end up variable this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday Afternoon...VFR. .Friday..Early morning MVFR or IFR visibilities at outlying terminals quickly becomes VFR during the day. .Saturday...MVFR possible. Slight chance of a shower. .Sunday...Chance of showers with MVFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure over the region with a weak pressure gradient will lead to light winds through Thursday night. Tranquil conditions across the local waters will prevail through this time. A sca may be needed on all waters Fri ngt into Sat behind a backdoor cold front. The sca may continue right thru the beginning of next week due to residual seas and low press passing e of the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the forecast period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NE flow behind a backdoor cold front may allow for areas of minor coastal flooding this weekend. Some of the more vulnerable back bay locations may approach moderate thresholds. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/JC HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC