171 FXUS63 KJKL 061804 AAC AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 204 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 204 PM EDT WED OCT 6 2021 Forecast is pretty much on track. Made some additional adjustments to PoP based on current radar trends. Band of light to moderate rain that has crossed the central portions of the CWA has weakened a bit as it lifted northward out of the area. Watching another band of showers and thunderstorms currently pushing northward through TN. CAMs keep this activity just outside of our CWA, but radar trends suggests some activity may just get into our southwestern most zones. There have been a few statements associated with these storms upstream, so a couple of those storms may produce some gusty winds. MLCAPES do climb to near 1500 J/kg across that area this afternoon while effective shear is marginal at about 25 to 30 kts. Only minor adjustments were made to remaining grids. UPDATE Issued at 956 AM EDT WED OCT 6 2021 Updated the forecast package to increase PoPs across the south and central portions of the CWA, where a solid band of light to moderate rain is moving northward across those areas. Updates to other grids T/Td/wind to bring in line with current observations resulted in only minor changes. Thus afternoon highs, etc. look on track. Still can not rule out some thunder but instability across the area is quite limited at this time. Should see a little bigger threat of thunder for the afternoon with daytime heating. No other changes at this time. UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT WED OCT 6 2021 Made adjustments to T/Td and Pops based on latest trends. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT WED OCT 6 2021 Unsettled weather continues as an upper level low continues to spin over the deep south this morning. This low is expected to slowly drift N/NE today and tomorrow and will be in the vicinity of Illinois by Thursday evening. Meanwhile at the surface, a stationary boundary continues to sit across northern KY this morning. This boundary will make little progress today before starting to lift north as a warm front tonight and eventually washing out over northern portions of the OH valley on Thursday. Overcast conditions this morning, with scattered light rain generally south of the mountain parkway. Temps remain mild with mid to upper 60s across the area, which is roughly 15 degrees above normal for early October. For today looking at scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms possible. Better chance for widespread showers/storms overnight into Thursday as the upper low drifts north. Hi-res guidance is coming into decent agreement that there may be periods of moderate to locally heavy rain Thursday morning, especially over S/SW portions of the area. WPC is highlighting a marginal risk for excessive rain over this area. While the focus for widespread rain is roughly 06-15Z Thursday, chances for showers/storms will continue through the afternoon and evening. High temps today will be in the upper 70s. Remaining mild overnight with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 60s. Afternoon high temps on Thursday may be a couple degrees cooler but still above normal ranging from the mid to upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM EDT WED OCT 6 2021 A large trough of low pressure aloft will bring showers and a few storms to eastern Kentucky to end the week and going into the upcoming weekend. The rain will begin to taper off Friday night, as the trough moves off to our east. The rain will linger in our far eastern counties on Saturday, but should exit the area for good by early Saturday evening. A ridge of high pressure will bring a period of dry weather to eastern Kentucky from Saturday night through late Monday morning. After that, we may see a few rain showers back in the area, as an area of low pressure moves slowly our way out of the central Plains. Temperatures will max out in the mid to upper 70s each day for most locations, with a few spots perhaps reaching 80 or so Saturday through Monday. Nightly lows should from the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT WED OCT 6 2021 Appears much of the area will see a relative lull from the more continuous, light to moderate rain experienced through the morning, with convection becoming more isold to scattered in nature through the afternoon. However, a band of heavier rainfall and more active weather will take aim at our far southwest this afternoon, where the best opportunity exist of hearing some thunder. Carried VCTS for that potential. Flight conditions are expected to remain in VFR territory until late tonight when more substantial precipitation overspreads the area. Most likely window of lower flight conditions (MVFR to possibly higher end IFR) appears to fall roughly between 06Z and 15Z Thursday. Winds are light and variable this morning becoming SE around 5 kts from late morning through this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...RAY