629 FXUS61 KBTV 061759 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 159 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds and areas of fog this morning will slowly dissipate this morning with mostly sunny skies developing this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be above normal with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A prolonged period of mainly dry conditions with above normal temperatures will prevail through the week and into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 159 PM EDT Wednesday...Forecast still playing out well this afternoon. Overcast skies hanging on only in southwestern Rutland County at this time with otherwise clear skies or fair weather cumulus in place. Mainly a refresh of temperatures and dew points based on the latest observations and model data were made with this update. Previous Discussion... When will the low clouds and patchy fog dissipate continues to be the fcst challenge today. Nighttime microphysics imagery shows some clearing slowly developing near the International Border, while most of our fa remains socked in with low clouds and patchy fog. Utilizing the 1000 to 850mb ML RH>70% off the RAP, which is handling the crnt clouds the best, would suggest clearing skies develop btwn 15z-18z today, with the dacks and parts of central/southern VT the last areas to clear. In addition, NAM 3km and RAP sounding data, suggests moisture trapped below 2kft should mix out at BTV btwn 16z-17z today, so have utilized these tools to keep clouds in the grids this morning, but clearing by this aftn. Temps are starting off very warm today with values mainly in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s, but clouds wl limit heating during the morning hours, however we should make up for lost time this aftn with sunshine and temps warming mid 60s to lower 70s under light winds. Tonight, 1027mb high pres directly overhead wl result in clear skies and light winds. Upstream satl imagery shows areas of fog has developed directly under this high pres system acrs southern Canada, so expect widespread fog/br on Thurs morning acrs our fa. Expect a large diurnal drop in temps, given the drier air/less clouds with values lowering 3 to 5 degrees below cross over values. Thurs with feature plenty of sunshine once the fog/low clouds burn off by mid-morning. Progged 925mb temps btwn 13-14c support highs upper 60s to lower/mid 70s most locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...On Thursday night, we will temporarily redevelop the nocturnal mid- level stratus clouds with some patchy fog where any breaks develop. Overnight lows will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. The atmosphere will remain quite dry on Friday. 925 hPa temperatures of about 15 C suggest highs in the low to mid 70s will be likely. PoPs nil. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...Friday night, a pronounced backdoor cold front will shift across the region with north winds becoming easterly. A narrow tongue of moisture ahead of the backdoor front and terrain induced convergence along the Greens could produce patchy drizzle in eastern Vermont into early Saturday. It seems the backdoor front will make it as far as the Adirondacks before the flow will shift south to southwesterly again as the upper ridge will give way to a weakening shortwave trough. Strong 1031 mb surface high will become established near Maine with tightening pressure gradients producing breezy 20 to 30 mph gusts in the afternoon, especially across channeled valleys. Light rain will develop across northern New York Saturday afternoon, and then how far this activity will progress east will depend somewhat on the strength of an offshore low along the Carolina Coastline. The farther north and the stronger it is, the more dry air will be advected into the North Country, but if it's farther south and weaker, then we will see some precipitation translate into Vermont. Either way, the amounts will be unsubstantial. We will briefly cool over the weekend, but remain above normal. The first half of the next week continues to look mostly dry. A pair of disjointed shortwaves will traverse near or just north of the North Country, and better synoptic scale forcing appears most likely to remain over the Great Lakes region and in Canada at this time with ridging continuing to dominate. This corresponds well with the relative minimum in total precipitation amongst ensemble members across New England. Temperatures will likely warm back to near 70. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions during the period, although areas of fog and stratus will redevelop after 03Z. MVFR ceilings currently at RUT will scatter out shortly after 18Z. Will monitor low level moisture transport overnight, as cloud bases will again tend to be low enough to supporting areas of IFR or LIFR ceilings even where fog does not develop. This scenario is more likely over MSS and SLK, which would help keep flight conditions MVFR or lower through a longer period after 12Z. Farther east, the nocturnal inversion should mix out relatively quickly resulting in dense fog at MPV and any fog at BTV, PBG, and EFK dissipating by 14Z. Winds will be light and variable through the period. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Columbus Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Kutikoff