922 FXUS64 KLIX 061756 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1256 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .UPDATE...Only real update to make was remove some showers out of the forecast for this afternoon. PWs this morning was 1.23 and there is not real strong LL inversion so not anticipating much in the way of showers but still can't completely remove them from the entire area as we could still see a few develop right around the peak of daytime heating. Everything else is pretty much on track. Enjoy the refreshing Fall like feel outside. /CAB/ && .AVIATION...18Z TAF Package...No concerns for flights today or tonight. VFR conditions will persist. Not completely out of the question but ASD and GPT could see MVFR vsbys for about an hour or two between 11-14z but not confident enough to add that to the TAFs yet. /CAB/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ MORNING UPDATE... Have decided to preemptively issue a dense fog advisory for areas surrounding the Pearl River valley as satellite indicates a large area of dense fog moving into the area from the east. This should begin to lift around 9am or slightly later but could make it as far west as eastern Pike Co later this morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night) PW values falling off over the next few days. The 00z sounding was a little ahead of schedule at 1.3" but we will take it and just speed up what the model trends are trying to show. As we fall back into a drier regime, a more October like pattern should show itself. But with no good cold fronts moving through at least through Friday, conditions won't change much but also shouldn't be too uncomfortable. As the upper closed low begins to get forced north then NE it will leave the mid level trough(shown best in RH fields) in place keeping the area on the dry side. LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)... A high pressure system will continue to dominate the forecast for our CWA on Saturday. This will keep conditions quiet and rather pleasant as dry air sticks around. This results in fairly low PoPs and clearer skies through the weekend. Into Sunday a shortwave trough will move over the Rockies, developing an associated frontal boundary out ahead of it that is expected to move into our forecast area through Monday. Model guidance currently shows this front weakening as it moves into our region, so that will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer. This frontal boundary will bring a gradual increase in PoPs for Monday and Tuesday mainly in the afternoon hours. Models show some moisture hanging around into Wednesday keeping isolated Pops in some areas. High temperatures are expected to remain average through the forecast period, in the mid to upper 80s for most. Low temperatures trend in the low 70s closer to the coast, while more northern parts of the forecast area see the mid to upper 60s. -HL/PG AVIATION... Low cigs of <=500' and some reduced vis mainly around sunrise should lift rapidly by 9am. The only terminals that will likely escape the IFR conditions are KMSY and KNEW where boundary layer mixing will be a bit higher. Once VFR condition set in the morning, they should persist through the remainder of this taf period. PG/17 MARINE... Winds will remain light northerly with some variability through the remainder of the work week. Light westerly to SW winds will remain over the most extreme eastern sections but these conditions should be light enough to not cause any sea condition issues. A more stable southerly wind is expected to develop over the weekend into the new week and should be 10-15kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 62 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 62 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 64 87 64 88 / 0 10 10 10 MSY 69 86 69 86 / 0 10 10 10 GPT 67 85 66 86 / 10 20 10 20 PQL 66 85 66 86 / 10 20 20 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$