657 
FXUS61 KBUF 061747
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
147 PM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at 
least Thursday night. Temperatures for the foreseeable future will 
continue to average well above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A Rex block over the center of the country this afternoon will 
transition into an omega block by Thursday. This feature will 
guarantee fair weather with above normal temperatures through this 
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday and Friday night...a closed low will begin to open up into
a wave as it starts to re-engage with the westerlies over the 
central Great Lakes. The plume of deep moisture downstream of the
trough will gradually move east into our area. Shower chances will
increase Friday afternoon west of the Genesee Valley, with showers
then spreading east into the Genesee Valley and western Finger
Lakes later Friday night. The eastern Lake Ontario region will
remain dry through late Friday night in closer proximity to high
pressure over New England.

Temperatures will trend well above normal through the end of the 
week. Highs will reach well into the 70s across lower elevations 
both Thursday and Friday, with a few upper 70s readings likely 
across Western NY and the Genesee Valley. A northeast wind will keep 
the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers associated with a mid and upper level trough will expand 
eastward into Saturday. Shower potential for Saturday will continue 
to support high chance POPs for areas south of Lake Ontario, with 
POPs diminishing some further east. Showers will diminish in 
coverage and track out of the area later Saturday night as the 
trough shifts northeast into Canada. 

Another trough and sfc low will track just north of the area on 
Sunday evening, possibly causing some showers as far south as the 
Niagara Frontier. Some guidance is suggesting a weak warm front 
tracking through the area as well, which would increase the 
potential for showers. 

Generally dry conditions though otherwise until Tuesday night when a 
sfc low and trough approach WNY increasing the chance for showers 
into Wednesday morning. 

Warm temperatures will continue to be the primary weather story as 
high temps are expected to be around 10 degrees or more above normal 
for most of the area. Highs in the low 60s to mid 70s over the 
weekend will warm a bit more to the mid 60s and upper 70s by early 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cigs of 2500 to 3500 ft will be found across the bulk of western and 
north central New York this afternoon. While cigs will thin out 
later this afternoon and evening...a strato-cu deck will develop 
over much of the region later tonight. There could even be a period 
of IFR cigs across the SOuthern Tier after 09z.

COnditions will improve Thursday morning to include mainly VFR 
weather at most TAF sites by midday. 

Outlook... 
Friday...VFR but with a chance of showers far west. 
Saturday...MVFR with scattered showers.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast to east winds below 15 knots expected through tonight. 
Small craft headlines are not anticipated, though choppy conditions 
will remain from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay along Lake Ontario 
and south of Dunkirk along Lake Erie before subsiding tonight.

Northeast to east winds less than 20 knots are expected on the lower 
Great Lakes through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...PP