463 FXUS64 KEWX 061739 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1239 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... VFR conditions through the TAF period at the I-35 corridor terminals west to the Rio Grande, with some scattered 9-10K foot clouds moving through the I-35 corridor. Some shallow fog around sunrise Thursday morning is possible across the coastal plains between KT20 and KVCT, although confidence is low. SE winds around 5-10KT are forecast today and tonight along the Rio Grande at KDRT. Along the I-35 corridor, winds speeds are currently around or less than 5KT and direction variable, however a SE direction may become established through afternoon. A slightly stronger SW to SE wind is forecast on Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFs/ VFR flying conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT100 over the I-35 sites and SKC at KDRT. At the I-35 sites, variable winds less than 5 KTs, though northwesterly at KSAT, becoming southeasterly near 5 KTs midday into afternoon, then south-southwesterly tonight. At KDRT, easterly 5 to 10 KTs veering to southeasterly with some gusts to 15 KTs this afternoon, then backing to easterly tonight. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... Except for patchy altocumulus clouds associated with a layer of mid level moisture, an upper level low drifting north up the Mississippi River Valley and an upper level ridge over Mexico into the southern high Plains maintain a dry northwesterly flow aloft. A ridge of high pressure at the surface drifting to the south will settle along and just inland of the Texas coast keeping Gulf of Mexico moisture cut off, though a subtle increase in dewpoints can be expected. PWs of 0.8 to 1.0 inch and subsidence keep rain out of the forecast. High temperatures continue to run slightly above average in the upper 80s to mid 90s with lows near average in the upper 50s to mid 60s. LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)... Upper level ridging will dominate the latter part of the week. This ridge will move across Texas from the west Thursday night through Saturday. Surface high pressure during this time will settle over the southeastern US making the low level flow southeasterly to southerly. This combination will lead to continued dry weather through the rest of the work week and weekend. For the rest of the work week, we will see large diurnal temperature swings with near normal lows and above normal highs. By the weekend higher dewpoint air will move into the region warming low temperatures five degrees or more, but high temperatures only a couple of degrees. We could approach record highs over the south central part of the CWA over the weekend. Models bring a cold front into the region for the beginning of next week, but are not in good agreement on its timing or movement. The GFS brings the front through our CWA Monday while the ECMWF brings the front to our northern border Sunday night and washes it out. The blended solution is a little closer the ECMWF. The result will be a low chance for rain over the eastern part of the area and little change in temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 63 92 64 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 58 90 62 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 91 61 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 61 90 64 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 96 66 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 60 90 63 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 61 92 61 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 91 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 91 63 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 91 64 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 64 93 65 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...76 Long-Term...Brady Decision Support...Platt