939 FXUS63 KFSD 061542 AAB AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD Issued by National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1042 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 The forecast remains on track this morning, and no noteworthy adjustments have been needed. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Latest satellite imagery reveals a stratus deck just to our east starting to advect over portions of NW Iowa and SW Minnesota, with current temperatures across the region hovering in the 50s. Though trends do suggest this stratus should continue to wane as we approach daybreak, will likely see diurnally driven cu develop in its place as a decent moisture layer lingers in the atmosphere. Thus, with more cloud cover in place have nudged afternoon highs a touch cooler, especially in areas east of I-29. Much like yesterday, winds during this time will also remain out of the south/southeast, with gusts as high as 20 mph possible in areas west of I-29 during the afternoon hours. Should see any breezy conditions gradually subside near sunset, with winds forecast to remain out of the southeast during the overnight period. Latest HREF guidance continues to hint that fairly widespread fog may be possible prior to daybreak Thursday in areas east of I-29, however, this will largely depend on how much clearing we see. As of now, believe clearing will be much slower than guidance is suggesting, which would help to limit such development. So for the time being will continue to monitor trends and refine the forecast during the next package if adjustments are needed. Otherwise, expect overnight lows to remain fairly mild as temperatures only fall into the mid to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Expect similar conditions to prevail Thursday, with winds becoming a touch more southerly throughout the day. While conditions look to remain largely dry, can't rule out the possibility of seeing a few light showers and rumbles of thunder in areas east of I-29 as an upper level low near Missouri lifts northward toward the region. Much like the previous discussion alluded to, sounding profiles continue to show elevated skinny CAPE, suggesting that the overall severe threat should remain low. Upper level flow turns more southwesterly by Friday as a trough digs across the western CONUS. At the sfc, expect winds remain out of the south under mostly sunny skies, allowing afternoon highs to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s with the aid of WAA. Overnight lows during this time will also remain on the mild side, as temperatures only fall into the mid to upper 60s. Friday night into Saturday, expect the aforementioned trough and its associated sfc cold front to edge closer to the region, causing rain chances to once again return to the forecast. While most guidance continues to suggest that the better moisture axis will remain just to our west and north, still believe we stand a fairly good chance for seeing light showers throughout the day, especially in areas north of I-90. Still have a bit of time to iron out the overall severe threat, but certainly think the possibility for seeing thunderstorms does exist. One other thing to watch once confidence in timing and location of the wave increase will be winds. The northwest flow should be fairly stout if something closer to the GFS/Canadian pans out. Otherwise, expect largely dry conditions to prevail for the remainder of the weekend, with northwest flow forecast to enhance CAA across the region. As a result, have afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s becoming more common through early next week, with overnight lows falling into the 40s. Could see rain chances return to the forecast by Tuesday as an upper level low near the four corners ejects northeastward, however, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty concerning the overall track of this feature. Nonetheless, will continue to monitor trends in the coming days. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Latest satellite imagery continues to show stratus deck gradually expanding westward over the region. While a few locations east of I- 29 have approached low end VFR levels, should see cigs gradually improve shortly after daybreak as stratus continues to wane. Otherwise, look for areas of diurnally driven strato cu to develop by late morning, with winds forecast to remain out of the south/southeast. Much like yesterday, could see gusts as high as 20 mph in areas west of I-29. A few high-res models do hint at the possibility for fog to develop prior to daybreak Thursday in areas east of I-29, however, this will largely depend on if we can get enough clearing. Thus, have opted to excluded mention in this TAF cycle until higher confidence is achieved. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LUECK SHORT TERM...SST LONG TERM...SST AVIATION...SST