012 FXUS66 KMFR 061536 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 836 AM PDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .DISCUSSION...Radar is showing a few bands of rainfall east of the Cascades as a front continues to slowly press eastward. Behind the front, the radar is picking up a few showers in southern Oregon, and satellite shows these post-frontal showers as well. Overall, the rainfall amounts west of the Cascades were pretty generous of a quarter of an inch in many places, with the coast seeing a little higher and the east side seeing considerably less. It is worth noting that the rainfall reported by the ASOS at the Roseburg airport is a bit suspect, so we will be looking at it today and can hopefully have a more accurate representation of the rainfall for the climate report. -Schaaf && .MARINE...Updated 830 AM PDT Wednesday 6 October 2021...Northwest swell is building into the waters. Guidance indicates that seas will not rise above 9 feet today, but with guidance underestimating swell heights lately, and with 13 ft seas being recorded in the far offshore buoys, the swell will likely exceed guidance. The current forecast keeps steep seas in the outer waters this morning, then spreads them to all areas as swell peaks this afternoon. A thermal trough will develop today then strengthen Thursday, producing gusty north winds and steep wind driven seas tonight into Thursday evening, with very steep seas possible south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough will weaken Thursday night into Friday. A weak front will move onshore Friday night into Saturday, followed by another front Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 446 AM PDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ Updated Aviation Discussion. DISCUSSION...A front is pushing east of the Cascades this morning, and it has brought rainfall to much of the forecast area overnight. Amounts have ranged from a half inch at the coast to a quarter inch over inland valleys to a few hundredths east of the Cascades thus far. Rain chances will linger in Lake and Modoc Counties this afternoon as the front slowly shifts eastward. Temperatures are trending lower, and today's high temperature will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with some warming Thursday. The next two nights will yield partly to mostly clear skies, and frost is possible in some colder valleys west of the Cascades. General troughing continues over the area on Friday, and afternoon temperatures will remain below normal. Precipitation should be minimal with this trough though, with best chances along the coast and Lake/Modoc Counties. High pressure will build in on Saturday, bringing a brief warming trend to the region before a more significant trough and cold front arrives on Sunday, bringing widespread precipitation. Snow levels behind the front will dip to their lowest levels so far this season, down to 4000 feet by Monday morning. Snow is possible on mountain passes, though snow impacts will probably be limited due to early October sun angle and relatively warm road temperatures. Still, stay tuned to the forecast if you plan on traveling over higher terrain areas or east of the Cascades late this weekend or early next week. Keene AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. Onshore flow is likely to produce areas of MVFR/IFR in the coastal valleys and North Bend, but reduced flight conditions should improve by afternoon. Just offshore, VFR ceilings are expected. Inland west of the Cascades, MVFR ceilings with mountain obscurations are likely this morning, with conditions gradually improving between 16-18z. After 18z VFR should prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. East of the Cascades, MVFR ceilings are possible along and just behind the front for a couple of hours early this morning, including Klamath Falls, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to be the predominate condition through the TAF period. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR... CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356. Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ370-376. $$