089 FXUS62 KCAE 061530 CCA AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Columbia SC 1130 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions will continue through the week as an upper level cut off low west of the area pushes Gulf moisture into the SE US. Drier weather is expected late in the weekend as the upper low moves away from the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... There has been little change in the overall synoptic setup in last 24 hours. The primary cutoff upper level low continues to remain quasi-stationary over the ArkLaMiss and a stalled boundary upstream of the trough axis remains over central GA. So overall the upper to low level flow pattern and PWATs are very similar to Tuesday and a similar precip pattern is expected. Scattered showers will begin pushing into the CSRA and southern Midlands around 15z and lift north throughout the afternoon. Hi- res suite have initialized reasonable well and show a fairly expected shield of moderate strength showers and embedded thunderstorms. Based on the best performing models in this current setup, the pops follow this line of thinking. However, a subtle change in the last day has been the modest increase in surface ridging along the east coast as isentropic lift continues to produce a weak in- situ wedge. Therefore temps this afternoon will be several degrees cooler than the last few days, around 80F for most of the cwa. Overnight, some showers are expected to continue across the northern portion of the cwa where 25+ mph of 850mb flow will force some isentropic lift despite loss of heating. Only expected generally light showers with a rumble or two of thunder, so chance pops continue through 12z. Low temps will drop into the upper 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main closed upper low will still be west of the forecast area through the day Thursday, then will be lifting further north and opening more into a trough axis Thursday night through Friday night. There should also be a weak surface front situated somewhere across the eastern Carolinas during this period as surface ridging off to the north brings a weak wedge pattern into the area. Upper flow will remain southwesterly, while the low-level flow will be off the Atlantic. This should keep deep moisture across the region. The moisture off the Atlantic will be moving inland and riding over the surface front. Expect scattered to numerous showers, with isolated thunder due to weaker instability. Activity overnight should become a little more scattered. High temperatures each day will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows Thursday night in the mid to upper 60s, while Friday night may be slightly cooler with lows in the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... By Saturday the trough axis will be pushing towards the east coast, then this trough may stall out across the western Atlantic. Upper ridge will build into the forecast area on the back of that trough axis, which should help in drying portions of the cwa out through the long term. Best chance for any rainfall should be more towards the eastern cwa and closer to the coast each afternoon, although isolated showers/storms can not be completely ruled out each afternoon anywhere across the forecast area. Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broken to scattered IFR stratus will continue through 15z to 16z for all terminals. Showers moving into AGS and DNL will help mix out some of the stratus there first and eventually all terminals will clear to VFR by 16z. Following that, showers and isolated thunderstorms will move from south to north again today in much the same manner as Tuesday. So restrictions again possible throughout the afternoon as these showers move through, primarily between 19z and 00z. For now, no mention of thunder in the TAFs due to low confidence. Winds have picked up a bit today and will generally be easterly, up to 10 knots (outside of any strong showers or storms). EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Patchy fog or low stratus possible each morning as deeper moisture moves over the region. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through Friday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...