540 FXUS63 KMKX 061515 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1015 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .UPDATE... (Issued 1006 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021) Mixing of some dry air aloft down to the surface brought on by daytime heating in combination with some easterly winds off of the lake have allowed for some clearing near lakeshore locales this morning. While this may continue for a few hours, skies should trend toward overcast through the remainder of the day as an upper lvl low moves northward towards us. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... (Issued 220 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021) Today: Watching stratus/fog trends closely in EC WI with some vsbys coming in AOB 1SM with patchy dense. Will hold off an a headline at this point but monitor trends in coverage. Influence of the surface high lingers though shifts eastward through the eastern great Lakes. low level easterly flow remains with any approaching rain proggd to hold off to our south. The influence of the broad mid level ridge also wanes with the slow approach of the upper low from the south. So we do start to see some cyclonic influence of that feature later in the day. Clouds for some still stubborn but seeing more breaks. All in all we may see a window of opportunity for some sun here and there between these clouds and the increase in clouds later head of the approaching moisture/energy from the south. Tonight through Thursday: Energy and moisture from the slow moving upper low will pivot into the area this period. So we will see a decent shot at some shra/isold tsra. Cloud cover will be widespread with unseasonably high dew points in the 60s. Looks like a decent surge of showers overnight into Thursday morning with additional shra development throughout the day. && .LONG TERM... (Issued 220 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021) Thursday night through Tuesday: The upper low over the TN Valley today shifts north and will be lifting across the area Thursday night through Friday. Greatest coverage of showers/storms will be during the day Thursday but with plenty of forcing aloft we can expect these showers to continue overnight. Lapse rates aloft are marginal but with lingering forcing and still plenty of moisture available expect another round of scattered showers/storms Friday afternoon. We'll see brief ridging develop on Saturday with only limited shower/storm chances during the afternoon hours. Main story for Saturday is going to be the strong WAA with highs well above normal into the upper 70s. Model differences start to emerge on Sat/Sun with the ECMWF/CMC ejecting a system out of the desert SW into the central/northern plains. Both of the models lift the main surface low through western MN and into Canada as the ridge over the area holds. The GFS though is a bit weaker with the ridge and instead brings both the surface low and upper wave across northern WI. This would drag a front through the area on Sunday and bring with it some shower/storm chances. Ensembles from each suite are mixed but do seem to lean more towards a drier day on Sunday resulting in the warm weather continuing with another day of highs in the mid to upper 70s. Larger differences emerge heading into the next week with another upper wave forecast to lift out of the southern US towards the area. ECMWF/CMC keep the main wave to our west keeping precip at bay until later on Monday. That could lead to another warm day on Monday before a round of showers/storms moves through. The GFS keeps the main wave to our south and then lifts it north later on Monday. This would likely lead to more clouds and cooler temps. So for now will stick with a blend of guidance but could easily see current temps a little under done if the ECMWF/CMC end up right. Temperatures stay mild through much of next week as we remain in an active pattern. Stumpf && .AVIATION... (Issued 1014 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021) This morning some clearing will be possible along the lakeshore and inland through parts of central WI as some pockets of dry air aid in dispelling some of the low cloud cover. Elsewhere, cigs will remain in IFR to MFVR with some improvements to VFR by the early afternoon. Some clouds may fill back in this afternoon as a low pressure system approaches from the south. Winds will be light and easterly. Overnight, cigs will decrease to IFR and VLIFR and some fog may be possible in areas prone along the lakeshore. Light to moderate rain showers will also be possible after midnight for all locations over southern Wisconsin. CMiller && .MARINE... (Issued 220 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021) Will keep the dense fog advisory going for the northern open waters. Focus has shifted westward a bit. Winds will continue to be easterly with high pressure pulling east from lower Michigan. Winds should shift to the south and southwest Friday into the weekend, as low pressure moves through the Central Plains into Minnesota. Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory levels at times Saturday into Sunday. Gales do not appear likely at this time for the open waters. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee