106 
FXUS62 KKEY 061429
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1029 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX Doppler Radar is currently detecting only a few isolated
showers over the Florida Keys coastal waters, occasionally
brushing the island communities, including Key West. Outside of
these showers, visible satellite imagery is highlighting partly
cloudy skies across the entire CWA. The 12z sounding at KEY
revealed an extremely moist sounding below 700 mb, with a
formidable subsidence inversion and associated dry air above. With
the climatologically-unfavorable southeast to south steering flow
and expected heating of the Florida Mainland, it is tempting to 
lower PoPs for the balance of today. However, given the 
aforementioned substantial low-level moisture, have elected to 
maintain chance levels. No changes are needed or planned at this 
morning forecast update cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
From synopsis, broad high pressure over the western North 
Atlantic and New England will gradually weaken late this week, as 
an upper- level trough over the Gulf Coast digs southeastward. 
Gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes will 
slacken, becoming light to gentle for Friday through the weekend. 
The aforementioned upper-level trough pivoting towards the Florida
Peninsula will result in elevated rain and thunder chances for 
the end of the week and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both the Key West and Marathon 
terminals through this afternoon and evening. There is a chance that 
a shower may cross over either terminal resulting in very brief MVFR 
or IFR conditions. However, the probability is not high enough to 
warrant inclusion in the terminal forecasts. Showers will generally 
be moving from southeast to northwest near 10 knots. Surface winds 
will be out of the southeast near 10 knots, becoming a little more 
east southeast this evening.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....Devanas
Data Acquisition.....AP

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