787 
FXUS61 KBUF 061428
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather through at 
least Thursday night. Temperatures for the foreseeable future will 
continue to average well above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A Rex block over the center of the country this afternoon will 
transition into an omega block by Thursday. This feature will 
guarantee fair weather with above normal temperatures through this 
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night a narrow upper level ridge will remain overhead,
with surface high pressure in place from Quebec to New England.
This will generally keep fair and dry weather in place across 
the majority of the region. The one exception may be across 
Chautauqua County. A mid level closed low will move slowly from 
the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday to near southern Lake 
Michigan by late Thursday night. A plume of moisture embedded in
southerly flow ahead of this feature will be located just west 
of our area, and a few showers may clip Chautauqua County at 
times. 

Friday and Friday night the closed low will begin to open up into a 
wave as it starts to re-engage with the westerlies over the central 
Great Lakes. The plume of deep moisture downstream of the trough 
will gradually move east into our area. Shower chances will increase 
Friday afternoon west of the Genesee Valley, with showers then 
spreading east into the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes 
later Friday night. The eastern Lake Ontario region will remain dry 
through late Friday night in closer proximity to high pressure over 
New England.

Temperatures will trend well above normal through the end of the 
week. Highs will reach well into the 70s across lower elevations 
both Thursday and Friday, with a few upper 70s readings likely 
across Western NY and the Genesee Valley. A northeast wind will keep 
the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers associated with a mid and upper level trough will expand 
eastward into Saturday. Shower potential for Saturday will continue 
to support high chance POPs for areas south of Lake Ontario, with 
POPs diminishing some further east. Showers will diminish in 
coverage and track out of the area later Saturday night as the 
trough shifts northeast into Canada. 

Another trough and sfc low will track just north of the area on 
Sunday evening, possibly causing some showers as far south as the 
Niagara Frontier. Some guidance is suggesting a weak warm front 
tracking through the area as well, which would increase the 
potential for showers. 

Generally dry conditions though otherwise until Tuesday night when a 
sfc low and trough approach WNY increasing the chance for showers 
into Wednesday morning. 

Warm temperatures will continue to be the primary weather story as 
high temps are expected to be around 10 degrees or more above normal 
for most of the area. Highs in the low 60s to mid 70s over the 
weekend will warm a bit more to the mid 60s and upper 70s by early 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly MVFR CIGS found across much of the area late this morning. 

Conditions will improve to mainly VFR by midday and will last 
through the day. MVFR/IFR conditions may redevelop late tonight with 
another round of low stratus and patchy fog, particularly south of 
Lake Ontario.

Outlook... 
Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...MVFR/VFR with shower chances increasing from west to east.
Saturday...MVFR with scattered showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast to east winds below 15 knots expected through tonight. 
Small craft headlines are not anticipated, though choppy conditions 
will remain from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay along Lake Ontario 
and south of Dunkirk along Lake Erie before subsiding tonight.

Northeast to east winds less than 20 knots are expected on the lower 
Great Lakes through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP