775 FXUS62 KMLB 061411 AAA AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1011 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .UPDATE... Not a lot going on this morning across east-central Florida with radar imagery showing mostly dry conditions across the region. A few light isolated showers have developed across the local Atlantic waters but have continued to diminish and re-generate this morning as they slowly move west-northeast towards the shoreline. Analysis charts show an inverted trough approaching the Florida coast as it current sits just to the northwest of the Bahamas stretching off the Carolina coasts to the east-central Florida coast. The National Hurricane Center has place a 10% chance of tropical development over the next five days as it slowly stalls out near the northeastern Florida coast. Moisture has started to increase across the Space Coast as the trough moves closer to Florida and due to a stalled out boundary situated northwest of east-central Florida. Water vapor imagery shows plenty of moisture advecting ahead of the boundary into northern Florida. Observed skew-t soundings this morning also indicated an increase in moisture present with precipitable water values between 1.5-1.9." Current temperatures are in the low-to-mid 80s with muggy dew points in the low-to-mid 70s. Isolated-to-scattered showers and lighting storms are expected to develop this afternoon and persist through this evening across the east-central Florida. Precipitation is forecast to develop as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and collides with a weaker and less established west coast sea breeze, as well as, outflow from storms that develop upstream of east-central Florida. The set-up today is very similar to yesterday, which means the best chance for rain will once again be west of I-95, especially along and west of I-4. Showers and storms will be diurnally driven today, so precipitation is forecast to diminish within a couple of hours after sunset. Any isolated storms that develop this afternoon will have the potential to produce gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. High temperatures are on track to reach the upper 80s to low 90s today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ .DISCUSSION... Current... Isolated showers streaming onshore this morning from the Atlantic, mainly from Cape Canaveral northward. Cell movement is towards the north to northwest around 10 mph. The 00Z XMR sounding continues to show an increase in moisture, with a PW value of 1.53", however there remains some dry air in the mid and upper layers. A few low level clouds are streaming overhead with a fairly broad deck of high level clouds over the Florida peninsula. Today-Tonight... A Mid level ridge will build westward from the Bahamas into Florida and will remain over Florida through the time period. At the same time, a cutoff low over the mid Mississippi Valley will begin to lift northward. An inverted surface trough just off the southeast Florida coast, will drift slowly northwest over the adjacent Atlantic through the day, with its western flank brushing east central Florida. Locally, east to southeast winds will start off light in the morning, increasing to around 5-10 mph mid morning before decreasing back to 5 mph or less overnight. Much like yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms are expected today as increased moisture remains over the area compared to the past weekend. Highest coverage (30-40 percent) of showers and storms will be across the interior in the afternoon and early evening. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s along the coast, and low 70s across the interior. Thursday-Sunday...As the H50 low over the mid-MS Valley lifts out north toward the western Great Lakes, a short trough rotates around its south side, digging SE and amplifying over the SE CONUS Fri before cutting off over or just east of FL this weekend. The axis of inverted surface trough will remain offshore the SE CONUS (north of central FL) Thu followed by a weak surface low developing offshore the Carolinas Fri. Global models differ slightly with respect to its position/movement (Q-stationary vs a slow eastward drift), which is dependent upon where the H50 low cuts off. The more eastward GFS/CMC have the trough and deepest moisture sliding farther eastward by Mon compared to the more westward ECM. Regardless, rain chances will increase Thu and especially Fri-Sat as deep layer forcing/instability maximize. POPs 50-60 for Thu and 70 Fri-Sat, with the caveat that these numbers are likely to be bumped to categorical (AOA 80) should the more eastward upper trough solution of the GFS trend toward the ECM/CMC. Upper low should being to elongate/drift east with slightly drier air/lower POPs for Sun. Max temps U80s-L90s Thu, U80s-90F Fri and mostly M80s Sat and U80s Sun. Mins generally in the L70s, with U60s possible in rural spots, mainly Sun night. Monday-Wednesday...Mid-upper trough drifts eastward early next week, carrying weak residual surface trough and deeper moisture farther seaward, as a strong mid level high builds east from the GOMEX toward FL. This should bring POPs back down (30-40/chance), possibly even lower (near climo/20) should the ridge build a little faster than currently advertised. Max temps U80s to around 90F. Mins a degree or two either side of 70F. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected outside of convection through the TAF period. Isolated Atlantic showers with a few of them making it to shore, mainly from KTIX northward. Scattered showers and storms expected today. Highest coverage will be across the interior, with interior sites having VCSH starting at 15Z. Have included VCTS for the interior terminals after around 20Z. SE winds in the morning becoming E in the afternoon, generally around 10KT or less. Winds will then become southeast around 5 KT or less overnight. && .MARINE... Current... Isolated showers over the Atlantic waters this morning, mainly across the nearshore waters from Brevard northward, with a few showers making it onshore. Cell movement is towards the north to northwest around 10 KT. Current buoy 41009 observations shows seas are 3 ft with ESE winds around 8 KT. Today-Tonight... Inverted trough over the local waters will slowly drift northwest through the day, remaining over the local waters. This inverted trough will keep a slack pressure gradient, with winds being east to southeast around 5-10 KT. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms today. While highest coverage will be across land this afternoon, a few isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible along the nearshore waters this afternoon, and across all the the local waters overnight. Seas will be 2-3 ft in the nearshore waters and 3-4ft in the offshore waters. Thursday-Sunday...A general light SE flow pattern should continue into this weekend as the aforementioned surface trough drifts over and then north of the waters. While the wind direction may become a little more variable this weekend as the trough begins to drift back east toward or over the waters, speeds are expected to remain in the 5-10kt range. Aside from some 4ft seas possible well offshore early Thu, seas will remain in the 2-3ft range. Increasing coverage of marine showers/storms will be the primary concern for boaters.&& .HYDROLOGY... The St. Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain at or below Action Stage through this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 74 90 73 / 30 20 40 20 MCO 91 74 93 76 / 40 20 60 20 MLB 88 73 89 75 / 20 20 60 20 VRB 90 72 90 75 / 20 20 60 20 LEE 91 74 93 76 / 40 20 60 20 SFB 89 73 91 74 / 30 20 50 20 ORL 90 74 91 75 / 40 20 60 20 FPR 88 73 88 73 / 20 20 60 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Fehling/Combs