076 FXUS63 KMPX 061150 AAA AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 650 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Clouds will be more widespread the next couple of days as we see an influx of moisture from the southeast. The deeper moisture arrives Thursday, along with a slight chance for showers or perhaps a thunderstorm along I-90. The threat for severe weather is near zero. TODAY through THURSDAY - Early morning satellite imagery with surface obs showed light southeast winds across the region, with stratus moving up from Iowa and Wisconsin. This trend will continue, and forecast soundings show a high likelihood of clouds during the day, so have increased the sky cover toward the cloudier end of the guidance. These clouds will keep temperatures a bit cooler than the past few days, with highs generally in the low 70s. Overnight deeper moisture will lift up from the southeast, and this will lead to scattered rain showers on Thursday. Forecast soundings do show a small amount of thin, elevated CAPE, so there is a small chance for thunder across mainly southern Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin. The threat for severe weather is very, very low. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 357 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 The nearly stationary upper level low across the Mid South this morning will begin lifting north tonight and reach the Mid Mississippi Valley Thursday. It will then eventually get caught up in the southwest flow, weaken, and exit to the northeast across the Great Lakes Friday. The presence of deeper moisture and some lift with the low will keep low shower chances through Thursday night. Steeper mid level lapse rates and warming temperatures will arrive Friday and Saturday with a ridge building in behind the upper level low. Increasing instability will bring a better chance of thunderstorms with another approaching shortwave from the southwest. A surface low will track across the northern/central Plains and somewhere across the Upper Midwest Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation is expected to be widespread along and north of the track of the system, with dry conditions south. PoPs have been increased to likelies across central MN and north and remain in the chance category across southern MN. Another system may follow the weekend one Monday and Monday night. The best chances of showers with this one are to the south, but the ECMWF has shifted north and now tracks it across MN and WI. A deep long wave trough will dig over the west and a very strong mid level system may eject east from Colorado Tuesday night. This may be the first powerful storm of the fall season as it develops northeast across the northern Plains. The long term appears quite active, but not everyone will see precipitation with each system. PoPs are littered throughout the forecast, but this is because of inherent uncertainties with temporal and spatial details at this range with the number of systems passing through. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Large stratus deck is heading north across southern MN and WI early this morning. It will engulf the area by this afternoon, but some breaks in the overcast are possible. An area of fog has developed just north of the leading edge of the stratus and is impacting RNH and surrounding locations of the Twin Cities metro. KMSP...Thickening fog surrounding the metro should remain there until it dissipates as mid level cloud cover advances in from the south during the next couple hours. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Fri...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Sat...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA/TSRA possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff