010 
FXUS66 KMFR 061146
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
446 AM PDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...A front is pushing east of the Cascades this morning, 
and it has brought rainfall to much of the forecast area 
overnight. Amounts have ranged from a half inch at the coast to a 
quarter inch over inland valleys to a few hundredths east of the 
Cascades thus far. Rain chances will linger in Lake and Modoc 
Counties this afternoon as the front slowly shifts eastward. 

Temperatures are trending lower, and today's high temperature will 
be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with some warming Thursday. The 
next two nights will yield partly to mostly clear skies, and 
frost is possible in some colder valleys west of the Cascades. 

General troughing continues over the area on Friday, and afternoon 
temperatures will remain below normal. Precipitation should be 
minimal with this trough though, with best chances along the coast
and Lake/Modoc Counties.

High pressure will build in on Saturday, bringing a brief warming 
trend to the region before a more significant trough and cold front 
arrives on Sunday, bringing widespread precipitation. Snow levels 
behind the front will dip to their lowest levels so far this season, 
down to 4000 feet by Monday morning. Snow is possible on mountain 
passes, though snow impacts will probably be limited due to early
October sun angle and relatively warm road temperatures. Still, 
stay tuned to the forecast if you plan on traveling over higher 
terrain areas or east of the Cascades late this weekend or early 
next week. Keene

&&

.AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. Onshore 
flow is likely to produce areas of MVFR/IFR in the coastal valleys 
and North Bend, but reduced flight conditions should improve by 
afternoon. Just offshore, VFR ceilings are expected. 

Inland west of the Cascades, MVFR ceilings with mountain 
obscurations are likely this morning, with conditions gradually 
improving between 16-18z. After 18z VFR should prevail for the 
remainder of the TAF period.

East of the Cascades, MVFR ceilings are possible along and just 
behind the front for a couple of hours early this morning, including 
Klamath Falls, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to be the 
predominate condition through the TAF period. -Petrucelli

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday 6 October 2021...The main 
concern will be an increasing northwest swell building into the 
region. Guidance indicates that seas will not rise above 9 feet 
today, but with guidance underestimating swell heights lately, and 
with 13 ft seas being recorded in the far offshore buoys, we suspect 
this swell will also arrive a bit higher than forecast. The 
resulting forecast keeps steep seas in the outer waters this 
morning, then spreads them to all areas as swell peaks this 
afternoon. 

A thermal trough will gradually develop Wednesday evening near the 
coast, then strengthen further on Thursday, bringing gusty north 
winds and steep wind driven seas Wednesday night into Thursday 
evening, especially south of Cape Blanco. Another weak front will 
move onshore Friday night into Saturday. -BPN/Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday 
     for PZZ350-356. 
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday 
     night for PZZ356-376. 
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ370-376. 

$$