524 FXUS64 KEWX 061123 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 623 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFs/ VFR flying conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT100 over the I-35 sites and SKC at KDRT. At the I-35 sites, variable winds less than 5 KTs, though northwesterly at KSAT, becoming southeasterly near 5 KTs midday into afternoon, then south-southwesterly tonight. At KDRT, easterly 5 to 10 KTs veering to southeasterly with some gusts to 15 KTs this afternoon, then backing to easterly tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... Except for patchy altocumulus clouds associated with a layer of mid level moisture, an upper level low drifting north up the Mississippi River Valley and an upper level ridge over Mexico into the southern high Plains maintain a dry northwesterly flow aloft. A ridge of high pressure at the surface drifting to the south will settle along and just inland of the Texas coast keeping Gulf of Mexico moisture cut off, though a subtle increase in dewpoints can be expected. PWs of 0.8 to 1.0 inch and subsidence keep rain out of the forecast. High temperatures continue to run slightly above average in the upper 80s to mid 90s with lows near average in the upper 50s to mid 60s. LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)... Upper level ridging will dominate the latter part of the week. This ridge will move across Texas from the west Thursday night through Saturday. Surface high pressure during this time will settle over the southeastern US making the low level flow southeasterly to southerly. This combination will lead to continued dry weather through the rest of the work week and weekend. For the rest of the work week, we will see large diurnal temperature swings with near normal lows and above normal highs. By the weekend higher dewpoint air will move into the region warming low temperatures five degrees or more, but high temperatures only a couple of degrees. We could approach record highs over the south central part of the CWA over the weekend. Models bring a cold front into the region for the beginning of next week, but are not in good agreement on its timing or movement. The GFS brings the front through our CWA Monday while the ECMWF brings the front to our northern border Sunday night and washes it out. The blended solution is a little closer the ECMWF. The result will be a low chance for rain over the eastern part of the area and little change in temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 92 63 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 58 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 61 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 88 61 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 66 96 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 60 90 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 61 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 60 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 62 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 63 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 64 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...04 Long-Term...05