054 
FXUS63 KJKL 061117
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
717 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 AM EDT WED OCT 6 2021

Made adjustments to T/Td and Pops based on latest trends.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Updates sent to NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT WED OCT 6 2021

Unsettled weather continues as an upper level low continues to spin 
over the deep south this morning. This low is expected to slowly 
drift N/NE today and tomorrow and will be in the vicinity of 
Illinois by Thursday evening. Meanwhile at the surface, a stationary 
boundary continues to sit across northern KY this morning. This 
boundary will make little progress today before starting to lift 
north as a warm front tonight and eventually washing out over 
northern portions of the OH valley on Thursday. Overcast conditions 
this morning, with scattered light rain generally south of the 
mountain parkway. Temps remain mild with mid to upper 60s across the 
area, which is roughly 15 degrees above normal for early October. 
For today looking at scattered rain showers with isolated 
thunderstorms possible. Better chance for widespread showers/storms 
overnight into Thursday as the upper low drifts north. Hi-res 
guidance is coming into decent agreement that there may be periods 
of moderate to locally heavy rain Thursday morning, especially over 
S/SW portions of the area. WPC is highlighting a marginal risk for 
excessive rain over this area. While the focus for widespread rain 
is roughly 06-15Z Thursday, chances for showers/storms will continue 
through the afternoon and evening. 

High temps today will be in the upper 70s. Remaining mild overnight 
with lows Thursday morning in the low to mid 60s. Afternoon high 
temps on Thursday may be a couple degrees cooler but still above 
normal ranging from the mid to upper 70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT WED OCT 6 2021

A large trough of low pressure aloft will bring showers and a few 
storms to eastern Kentucky to end the week and going into the 
upcoming weekend. The rain will begin to taper off Friday night, as 
the trough moves off to our east. The rain will linger in our far 
eastern counties on Saturday, but should exit the area for good by 
early Saturday evening. A ridge of high pressure will bring a period 
of dry weather to eastern Kentucky from Saturday night through late 
Monday morning. After that, we may see a few rain showers back in 
the area, as an area of low pressure moves slowly our way out of the 
central Plains. Temperatures will max out in the mid to upper 70s 
each day for most locations, with a few spots perhaps reaching 80 or 
so Saturday through Monday. Nightly lows should from the upper 50s 
to lower 60s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT WED OCT 6 2021

VFR to start the 12Z TAF period. Overcast mid and high clouds this
morning with scattered light rain showers around eastern KY.
Expected to remain VFR today although an isolated thunderstorm or
heavy rain shower may result in brief flight restrictions this
afternoon into this evening. More widespread rain is expected
overnight into Thursday morning, and ceilings are expected to fall
to MVFR. Winds are light and variable this morning becoming SE
around 5 kts from late morning through this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMF
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMF