452 FXUS61 KOKX 061105 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 705 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to gradually build in from the north and remain in control through the end of the week. A reinforcing high builds to the northeast this weekend. This high pressure should remain in place into the early part of the weekend as low pressure potentially develops along the Middle Atlantic coast late in the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... For this update only had to tweak the hourly forecast database to more perfectly match latest observational trends. Forecast remains right on track. The upper level low along the Mississippi Valley has cut off from the westerlies and has even retrograded a bit. This allows deep layer ridging to get established across the area today as high pressure at the surface ridges down from the north along with building heights across the Western Atlantic and Eastern seaboard. Despite high pressure there will be clouds lingering, especially across the western half of the area today as some residual low level moisture does reside underneath an inversion. A drier push of air out of the north and northeast across Eastern New England should allow more sunshine, or at least breaks of sunshine today across eastern sections. For tonight an inversion near 5 kft will keep some residual moisture trapped underneath. Where sufficient breaks in cloud cover can take place is where patchy fog will look to form. Otherwise look for temperatures to continue to run above normal for this time of the year with lows mainly in the middle 50s to around 60, except perhaps a few lower 50s where some clearing can take place. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... With high pressure over the area large scale sinking motion take place. Thus, the dry weather will continue. The question will be how much cloud cover takes place with an inversion still evident from 4 to 5 kft. Looks for broken cloud cover to persist across the area. The winds will remain light due to the weak pressure gradient over the area. Temperatures should be a touch warmer with mainly middle 70s region wide for daytime maxes. By Thursday night look for some more low clouds / patchy fog to attempt to form. However high clouds may try to sneak in. Not sure at this point if it would be enough to preclude any patchy fog from forming. Temperatures again will continue to run several degrees above normal for the night time hours, which has been a theme as of late. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The overall thinking in the long term has not changed too much over the last 24 hours. An upper level ridge on Friday will slide to the east and weaken this weekend. The upper low that will be spinning across the central states the next several days is forecast by the global models and ensemble means to lift up into the Great Lakes and weaken Friday. The lingering trough and most of the dynamics should pass well to the northwest on Saturday as they lift up into southeast Canada. However, the ridge breaks down just enough for a weak upper trough to develop over the eastern seaboard late in the weekend. The evolution of the pattern becomes less clear early next week, but there are continued signs that the upper ridge will ridge will redevelop over the northeast. At the surface, high pressure weakens on Friday before a reinforcing high builds over northern New England this weekend. The building high will bring a stronger E-NE flow to the region on Saturday and also an increase in low clouds. Some lower resolution models have light QPF indicated on Saturday, but feel this is just an indication of the lower level moisture rather than actual precipitation. The lowest 2kft on forecast soundings appears too dry to support anything more than a few sprinkles, mainly across the western half of the area. The approach of the upper trough and weakening ridge aloft on Sunday may support a few more showers, but overall lift is weak and have capped PoPs off at low chance. Otherwise, high pressure should then remain the dominant surface feature across the region into early next week. The weakness that is left behind from the upper trough over the weekend may help develop an inverted trough or low pressure off the Middle Atlantic/southeast coast. The general consensus of the modeling keeps this feature well to the south and east into early next week. There have been some solutions that indicated the low/inverted trough may try to bring some rain towards the area, but preference has been towards the upper ridge and surface high keeping the region largely dry early next week. Have just kept a slight chance PoP consistent with the NBM for now. Temperatures through the period will be above normal. The warmest day will likely be Friday with highs in the middle 70s. More clouds over the weekend should lead to highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Temperatures early next week look to continue in the lower to middle 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds over the terminals through Thursday. MVFR ceilings this morning will improve to VFR this afternoon. VFR should then prevail through tonight. There may be some patchy MVFR or IFR visibilities at outlying terminals early Thursday morning, but have left out of the TAF for now due to low confidence. Wind speeds will largely be 5 kt or less this morning out of the NE. Wind direction could shift to the SE-S along the coast this afternoon. However, confidence in exact wind direction is low and could end up variable this afternoon. Light and variable winds will then continue into Thursday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... The timing of improvement to VFR may be off by +/- 1-3 hours. High confidence in wind speeds around 5 kt or less through this evening. Lower confidence in exact wind direction, which may end variable this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Friday...Early morning MVFR or IFR visibilities at outlying terminals quickly becomes VFR during the day. .Saturday...MVFR possible. Slight chance of a shower. .Sunday...Chance of showers with MVFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure builds in from the north the next couple of days. This will result in decreasing winds and lowering seas. Therefore Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the waters through Friday night. A strong pressure gradient is likely to develop on Saturday leading to potential of SCA gusts on the ocean. The non ocean waters should stay below 25 kt, but if the gradient ends up being stronger then SCA conditions could also occur there. Ocean seas should also build to 5-6 ft on Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/DS NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...DS MARINE...JE/DS HYDROLOGY...JE/DS