930 
FXUS65 KVEF 061008 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
305 AM PDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild conditions return today and Thursday
but another storm system arrives Friday with showers and gusty 
winds, especially in the Sierra and southern Great Basin. This 
system will depart Saturday followed by a much colder system 
dropping down from the north early next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Dry and mild conditions are in store the next couple days before the 
weather pattern turns cooler and unsettled Friday into Saturday then 
again early next week. Southwest flow aloft will spread over our 
area today behind the low pressure system lifting away across the 
Four Corners region. Sunshine will be somewhat filtered this 
afternoon by mid and high clouds moving in from the Eastern Pacific. 
This moisture plume will expand over the region Thursday ahead of a 
trough digging off the West Coast. This system will also stir up 
south-southwest winds 15-25 mph over much of the forecast area 
Thursday afternoon. High temperatures will be close to normal today 
and Thursday with readings in the 80s for Las Vegas and most of the 
Mojave Desert zones. 

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

Trough along and off the West Coast forecast to split with northern 
stream upper low currently off the Washington coast lifting inland 
across the Pac NW/western Canada. Cold air digging south offshore 
will help develop the southern stream wave well off the California 
coast over the next two days. By Friday and Saturday, trough will 
move inland across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin. 
Southwest surface winds will increase ahead of the incoming trough 
Friday. Within that southwest flow, models suggesting the trough 
will tap into a plume of higher precipitable water values which 
spread inland across southern California, far southern Nevada and 
northwest Arizona. Latest ensembles show highest QPF values hitting 
the southern California mountains with amounts less than 0.25" 
spreading inland across the Mojave Desert. 

Deeper, colder trough still on track early next week. Latest NBM 
highs for Tuesday fell a few more degrees from the previous 
forecast. System looking somewhat comparable to October, 2008 when 
record low maximum high temperatures were set at all of our primary 
climate stations. The Las Vegas record low maximum for next Tuesday 
is 62 degrees, forecast 66, normal 83.  
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...No significant weather expected today 
through Thursday morning. Generally southwest light winds less than 
7 knots will continue through mid morning. East-southeast components 
will likely develop from late morning through the afternoon with 
sustained speeds approaching 10 knots 22Z-02Z. Typical light 
southwest winds will develop after sunset. Increasing high clouds 
generally 15-20 kft will occur this afternoon through Thursday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southeast 
California...No significant weather will occur across the region 
today under a dry southwest flow aloft and increasing clouds 
generally above 15 kft MSL. Winds will generally remain less than 10 
knots for most TAF sites. The exception will be Bishop with south 
winds gusting up 20 knots this afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating 
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Adair
LONG TERM...Pierce

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