001 FXUS63 KGLD 060902 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 302 AM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Based on local research, the pattern is looking favorable for the potential of blowing dust to develop Tuesday afternoon, mainly along and west of the Kansas-Colorado border. Blowing dust would potentially come into the area from the southwest. Confidence is low at this time of blowing dust occurring since this is seven days away. October is a prime month for blowing dust events in the Goodland area of responsibility. Stay tuned for further updates. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Morning) Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 RAP analysis shows the Tri-State area in high pressure with a broad low over the Mississippi Valley and a trough approaching the Four Corners region. Clear skies will exist thanks to the high pressure for the rest of the day and through the night as afternoon highs will be in the 80s. Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns remain mainly west of Highway 27 through the remainder of the afternoon as RH values fall into the lower 20s to upper teens this afternoon; any near critical area look to remain across east Colorado where winds are slightly breezier and RH's are lower. Tonight, low level moisture will slowly increase from the eastern low as winds remain out of the SSE around 10 knots or less. For this package overnight lows were raised slightly to account for the moisture advection as this should limit how much overnight temperatures fall due to radiational cooling via the lack of cloud cover. Widespread lows in the 40s are expected but wouldn't be surprised if a few locales in lower lying regions fall into the upper 30s. Wednesday, the low from the east drifts slowly to the west as the trough over the western CONUS moves NE towards the Rockies. These two synoptic features look to collide roughly over western Kansas where a tight pressure gradient develops. Forecast soundings indicate near 30 knots of wind through out the mixing level, which should have no problem transporting to the surface due to the clear skies. Winds will be noticeably breezy as sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts up to 30 knots likely. Elevated to near critical fire weather again looks possible albeit the more moist airmass, even though RH values over east Colorado fall into the lower 20s. Another feature to keep an eye on is the trough from the west as a weak shortwave is associated, as it sparks some showers over the Front Range Wednesday afternoon. A slight eastward shift with the overall trough may create enough lift for a stray shower or two across east Colorado during the late afternoon/ early evening hours due to the shortwave as the increase in overall moisture in conjunction may create enough lift. Confidence in this scenario is low and not high enough to introduce showers into the forecast at this time. Highs for Wednesday look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s as some clouds move in from the west. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Oct 6 2021 To begin the extended period, SW flow will remain over the area on Saturday as an upper level trough moves across the Great Basin, pushing the ridge east. A lee surface trough will gradually move across the area throughout the day. Dry conditions are expected Saturday with RH values dropping into the lower 20s and upper teens mainly in areas along and SW of a Wray to Colby to Gove line. Elevated to near critical fire conditions are possible in the aforementioned area Saturday afternoon as winds gust around 20-25 mph while shifting from SW to NW. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s, with a near-record high possible in Hill City. The record for Hill City is 90 degrees (1965). Overnight lows are expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s, with a slight chance of rain possible in eastern CO and the neighboring counties north of I- 70. The upper low will move across the Four Corners overnight Saturday and the Plains Sunday into the overnight hours. As the trough moves over the area, precipitation chances will increase during the late afternoon to overnight hours. Currently, the better confidence in for areas south of US-40. With the cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and the upper 30s to mid 40s overnight. The rain is expected to move east out of the area early Monday, leaving the remainder of the day into Tuesday morning dry as a weak upper ridge passes over. Precipitation chances return Tuesday afternoon as a strong upper trough moves across the Four Corners while a cold front pushes east across the CWA overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday. As the system moves across the Rockies into the High Plains, the latest model runs have the low shifting towards the NE which could place the Tri-State area in the dry slot of the low. Confidence is low in terms of precipitation amounts/chances given the uncertainty in the low's track this far out. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 70s. Overnight lows on Monday are expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday night could be another drop into the 30s near the Palmer Divide with lows in the upper 30s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 942 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KGLD and KMCK. Southeasterly winds generally under 10kts overnight will increase to around 12-16kts gusting to 24kts by mid-day. After sunset, winds will ease back to 9-13kts from the southeast. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AW SHORT TERM...TT LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...AW