957 FXUS63 KABR 060830 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 The main issue for today will be the fire weather conditions west of the Missouri River. Despite min rhs not quite making it to 20 percent or lower, strong south winds and very dry fuels along with coordination with UNR, decided to go with a Red Flag Warning for the counties west of the Missouri River this afternoon into the early evening. Min rhs should fall to between 20 to 25 percent with south winds mixing out into the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts to 35 mph or higher. The hot, dry, and windy index (HDWI), the Bear Creek RAWS showing an ERC (Energy Release Component) above the 90th percentile, SPC's elevated fire weather outlook, and harvest considerations were also used in the decision to go with a Red Flag Warning. Otherwise, today will be another sunny day with breezy/windy conditions across the cwa. With cooler 85h temperatures for today, high temperatures will also be a little lower. The surface pressure gradient remains tight into tonight and Thursday. Expect south winds to decrease some tonight with mild overnight lows in the 50s. Thursday will again be a breezy/windy day mainly east of the river with south winds across the cwa with a cool front pushing into western sd. As a result, there will be more clouds moving in/developing into Thursday afternoon and may hold temperatures down some. Highs should be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s Thursday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Still watching two storm systems in the extended period, each bringing good chances for rainfall across the region. First system still on track to move northeast across the northern plains Friday night through Saturday night. Swath of highest QPF seems to be lining up in the models from north central SD northeastward into ND. This is shown on the GEFS 31-member Ensemble Prob 12-hour Precip values of 0.50 and 1 inch. Probability for 1 inch is still somewhat low, but values from 20 to 30 percent are showing up across north central SD, with much higher values at 0.50 inches. Inherited POP grids now have chances from 70 to 80 percent, which seems good at this point based on the latest information. Focus will then shift to potentially a much larger and stronger storm system over the central and northern plains by the middle of next week. Although it's Day 7, there is a surprising amount of consistency in a solution that brings a deep surface low with widespread rainfall northward across the region. Inherited POP grids already have likely chances on Day 7. Don't see this very often, but will be curious to see future model runs and how they handle this system. && .AVIATION...(For the 06z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ003-015. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mohr LONG TERM...TMT AVIATION...Mohr