965 FXUS62 KILM 060751 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 351 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and storms will gradually increase this week as tropical moisture moves into the region. Above normal temperatures are expected much of this week, particularly morning lows. Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as a wave of low pressure meanders off of the Southeast coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper ridge amplification will tend to squelch deep convection, and maintain above normal temperatures this period. Better rain chances to reside across NE SC due to slightly stronger upper diffluence and higher precipitable water values. Tropical wave offshore to lift north tonight into Thursday, enhancing shower chances along the coast, before ejecting to the NE Thursday afternoon. There may be a weak surface low embedded in this feature as it exits the picture. Local pressure gradient slightly pinched, will bring NE wind gusts to 20 mph near the coast today and Thursday. This will generate a longshore current in the surfzone, while bringing slightly more low level stability over land, but not a lot because sea surface temps remain mild with enough absolute humidity available to spawn isolated convective chances most locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cutoff low in the mid to upper levels will be lifting up through the Upper Great Lakes Thurs night into Fri, leaving an open trough extending down to the Gulf coast which will traverse across the Southeast through Fri. At the same time a wave of low pressure at the sfc will maintain an onshore, mainly northeasterly flow in the low levels as it meanders off the Carolina coast. With the upper trough axis to the west through Fri, enhanced lift and deeper layer moisture will exist over the area. Overall, expect unsettled weather with decent rain chances, especially through late Fri into Fri night. Should see higher end QPF possible with enhanced lift. Temps will be running above normal, with overnight lows in the 60s and daytime highs reaching into the 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deep mid to upper trough over the Southeast on Sat will shift off the coast as ridge begins to build up from the Gulf coast behind it. At the surface, a wave of low pressure off the Carolina coast will continue to meander over the offshore waters. Expect drier air to move in with a deeper northerly flow but kept some low end chc of pcp as ECMWF and Canadian models both showing possible cutoff low developing early next week with slower progression offshore, and possibility of perturbations riding across in N-NW flow aloft. Looks like best potential for any pcp will remain along the coast or offshore for the most part. Temps should continue to run above normal with overnight lows in the 60s and daytime highs within a few degrees of 80. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Marine showers to impact areas from KSUT to KILM to KOAJ to 14z. Inland, IFR visibility and patchy low stratus are expected as winds will be detached moreso, through 13z. VFR follows with isolated convection today, more concentrated over NE SC this TAF period. NE-E winds this TAF cycle, 4-12 kts, highest coast. Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions could develop in association with clouds and multiple rounds of showers through the end of the week. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...More difficult marine conditions to set in as gusty NE winds to 20 kt become common on the waters, as high pressure builds southward over land, a weak tropical low pressure offshore lifts north. No advisories but small craft should use caution, especially with a confused sea-state, of NE wind-sea interacting with fresh swell of SE waves, producing chaotic, bumpy, and pitching conditions. Standing up on a small craft deck will be noticeably more difficult today than recently. Isolated TSTMs through late Thursday, and radar updates are encouraged before a venture out, especially Thursday afternoon and evening as showers and storms become more numerous over the waters, moving to the NE. Thursday night through Sunday... A wave of low pressure will meander off the Carolina coast Thurs night into early next week moving farther offshore eventually. This should produce a northerly flow over the waters through most of the period, especially from Sat onward into early next week. May see gradient tighten enough to produce a stiffer N-NE flow pushing seas up near SCA thresholds over the weekend. A longer period easterly swell will be in the mix wit overall seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...08 MARINE...MJC/RGZ