835 FXUS61 KRNK 060740 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 340 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will stall over the Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast states through at least Friday. This will create periods of clouds, showers, and thunderstorms for our region. As this storm system weakens and moves northeast, the chance of rain will diminish. Drier weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday... ...Another day of scattered showers and storms... This morning an upper level low was located over Arkansas, and was focusing deep moisture flow into the southeastern and Gulf states. Easterly flow from the Atlantic was also bringing in high PWAT air to the Mid Atlantic region and was helping to focus moisture along the southern Appalachians. At the surface, an associated, disorganized frontal system was rotating slowly through the southeast. Area radar showed scattered showers moving south to north across northern NC, eastern VA, and southeastern WV. More isolated coverage was found to the east. Expect more uniform coverage towards morning, with the higher terrain playing a role in focusing the heavier showers and storms. Most of the activity will develop this afternoon and evening, similar to yesterday. Localized urban and small stream flooding will be possible as locations see a repeat of yesterday. Low stratus and fog were widespread this morning. Fog should mix out by mid morning, but stratus will be slow to improve, and will linger in some areas much of the day. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s in the northwest mountains to the upper 70s in the piedmont. Tonight stratus and fog will remain intensify again with isolated showers. Overnight lows will be warm and in the low to mid 60s. Average confidence in PoPs and temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...Rain showers persist through Friday... Our weather pattern continues to be dominated through this forecast period by the effects of an upper level low meandering just to our west. Moisture in the atmosphere over us is kept above normal (~1.5" PWAT) by a surface high to the north creating a wedge in our area. That easterly flow keeps feeding Atlantic moisture into the region. Off and on showers will be the order of the day both Thursday and Friday. Rainfall rates could be quite high in some storms, so there will be localized pockets of higher rainfall totals, but in general expecting heaviest amounts to be along the southern Blue Ridge and into the North Carolina High Country. Multi-day totals there will be 1-2", with most other areas generally looking at 0.5-1" of rain. Given the high moisture content, diurnal temperature swings will be smaller than usual. Highs during the day will be about normal for this time of year, in the 60s west of the Blue Ridge, low 70s east. Overnight lows, however, will be a bit above normal, with 60s for most, and upper 50s for the higher elevations of the mountainous regions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...A wet start to the weekend, but next week promises quieter weather... Closed upper low begins to be drawn north out of our area, and becomes a stretched out broad trough over the eastern CONUS. Saturday will be the last day for widespread shower coverage as the axis of the trough moves away late Saturday. Sunday sees reduced chances of showers as PWATs begin to fall down to a drier 1" level. The first half of next week will see that slightly drier environment combine with a entering surface high and upper ridging to provide a quiet start to the workweek. A few isolated showers may form up, with best chances towards the Alleghany Highlands. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than average with reduced cloud cover and ridging overhead. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday... Areas of fog and stratus are widespread across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia this morning. Widespread MVFR to LIFR visibilities due to fog and stratus will continue for the morning hours, with stratus hanging around even into the afternoon. Most sites should improve to high IFR/MVFR by 15-18Z however. More scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, mainly after 16Z, and will be concentrated along the spines of the Blue Ridge and the higher terrain. However included VCSH in all TAF sites as every site has at least a 30-40% chance to see some precipitation. Some of this will be moderate to heavy rain, and may bring down visibilities at times. Some improvement is expected again after nightfall with less coverage of showers. Expect another night of low stratus, fog, and perhaps drizzle tonight into Thursday morning, causing LIFR conditions. Average confidence in ceilings,visibilities and wind. Extended Aviation Discussion... The potential LIFR to MVFR conditions will continue until the end of the week. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist due to an easterly wind pumping deep moisture into the central Appalachians. Drier air is expected come into our region Saturday night, with mainly dry and VFR weather Sunday through Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...SH