506 FXUS63 KMPX 060548 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1248 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .UPDATED for 06Z Aviation Discussion... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A CU field has developed this afternoon from south central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. Temperatures are tracking well with most locations in the low 70s. Areas of fog may develop in eastern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin again tonight, but it looks pretty patchy compared to the past couple of days. Lows tonight will remain pretty warm, only falling into the 50s. Ridging aloft continues tomorrow, but begins to break down late on Wednesday as a cut off low over the south central CONUS drifts northward. Look for clouds to be on the increase, but any showers should hold off until the end of the period or later. Highs tomorrow will be in low 70s once again with light southeast winds. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s for most, with the Twin Cities Metro area staying in the low 60s. Pretty impressive temperatures for October. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 The forecast will trend toward being more active with the long term period with multiple chances for precipitation. Temperatures will continue to be above normal, but will trend cooler after Saturday with highs more in the 60s than the 70s. Overnight lows look likely to continue to remain above temperatures that would support frost. Thursday to Friday... Thursday will see a chance for some rain showers with the best chances in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as a upper low drifts northward. Overall rainfall totals with this are likely to be light, but could be higher if moisture advection is stronger than expected to allow for some larger showers and possibly storms to develop. With limited instability though thunderstorm chances remain low. Some additional shower chances on Friday, but lower chances than Thursday with less synoptic support. Saturday to Sunday... The best chance for rain will be this weekend as a trough makes its way across the central CONUS. Unfortunately compared to previous runs there has been some divergence between the main two deterministic models the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS remains to the north, but the ECMWF now favors a much farther south path for the surface low which could bring the heaviest rain to southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin instead of northern Minnesota. Looking towards ensemble output the GEFS continues to stick with more of the northerly track overall, so this seems to be a difference between model systems. The next few runs of the models will be key in determining if this shift will happen. So bottom line is that rain is likely this weekend, but the timing and location of the highest amounts have become less certain. Monday to Tuesday... Early next week high surface pressure and a return to more of a ridging pattern aloft should bring a return to quieter weather. There could be some lingering rain on Monday and the remainder of the week, not covered in this discussion, does look to trend back into the more active side once again. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 VFR conditions for most locations. There is a chance for another round of early morning fog/stratus at KRNH/KEAU. Meanwhile the rest of the locations will have increasing clouds during the morning and through the afternoon as southeast winds draw in low level moisture. These clouds should remain above 3000 ft. KMSP... VFR conditions throughout. Low stratus will move in this morning, but cloud bases closer to the 4000 ft level. Expect nearly overcast skies the rest of the day. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Fri...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Sat...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CEO LONG TERM...NDC AVIATION...JRB