741 FXUS63 KLMK 060548 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 148 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 929 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 A solid batch of steady to briefly heavy showers are continuing to push northwestward along and north of the I-64 corridor at this hour. Have upped pops to categorical and some locations could pick up a quick 1"+ of rain. The highest MSD gage right now is .84" in less than an hour. Not too concerned about any minor flooding issues given how quick the showers are moving, however ponding of water on roadways is certainly possible. Updated products out shortly. ...A Few Rotating Storms Across Southern KY Wednesday?... One other thing worth noting for tomorrow. A look at soundings and wind profiles for our SW CWA reveals favorable hodographs for some potential rotating and/or splitting updrafts. The ability to destabilize will be in question given heavy cloud cover, however some data does show at least some modest instability. Anything surface or near-surface based combined with low LCL's and notable effective SRH values in the 150-200 M2/S2 range could yield a marginal brief tornado threat. The main timeframe of concern would be later in the day/evening, but can't completely rule out any part of the day. Something to keep an eye on, and collaboration with SPC has agreed that a Marginal Risk may be needed tomorrow if data continues to support the threat. Previous Update... Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Numerous showers have developed just south of the I-64 corridor, and will push northwestward through our CWA over the next few hours. Upped coverage into the likely range for points along the I-64 corridor to account for this. Some moderate rates are possible at times, and perhaps even briefly heavy. Also cannot completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder, although haven't seen any in a while. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Closed upper low over western Mississippi will retrograde NW into the Ozarks by Wed evening, with a sfc warm front pivoting N/NW into Kentucky tonight. ESE low-level jet will pull a decent moisture feed from east Tennessee into south-central Kentucky tonight, with a modest warm advection wing providing a short-lived opportunity for scattered showers farther north. Later in the night precip will be more focused to the south and west of Bowling Green, directed more in line with the low-level jet. Veering flow is expected on Wednesday, with a vort lobe swinging around the east side of the closed low late. This will bring another slug of moisture from the Tennessee Valley northward into central Kentucky toward sunset. Will carry likely/categorical POPs in the afternoon, but at this time it appears the QPF to support WPC's marginal risk for excessive rainfall will hold off until Wednesday night. .Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Wednesday Night through Friday...By Wednesday night, the 576dm upper low is projected to be over the MO/AR border while deep southerly flow continues to advect warm, moist Gulf air overhead. Notable slug of PVA and a low level jet will result in widespread likely to categorical PoPs across the CWA for Thursday. Soundings do show diurnal increases in CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg), so expect a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The low makes its way into the Great Lakes region by Friday afternoon allowing low to mid level ridging to build in over the region. This will decrease PoPs across the area, but still expect to see diurnal redevelopment of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. The Weekend...Upper low opens into a trough and exits NE allowing upper ridging to build in over the region. Will continue to maintain low level southerly flow with dew points in the 60s with our position on the western flank of high pressure. Warm southerly flow will push temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s, giving us a late last look at summer with dry conditions expected. Monday and beyond...Models begin to diverge a bit during this period with regards to a Central Plains system and its depth and placement. But overall, expect to see rain and possible thunderstorms return during the beginning of next week. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 145 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 IMPACTS: Prevailing VFR conditions with times of MVFR to IFR with areas of showers and even thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSIOn: Radar showing light showers streaming in from the south- southeast this morning. Likely see showers around all TAF sites this morning. Most CIG will remain around VFR but there could be some MVFR conditions with showers this morning from BWG/HNB. Attention then turns to the afternoon where we could see areas of showers and even embedded thunderstorms work from the south to the north. These showers and storms likely will produce brief periods of heavy rain reducing VIS to MVFR/IFR levels. Another wave of showers and embedded storms will likely work from the south to the north again overnight with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions with heavy rain and reduced visibility. CONFIDENCE: medium on timing and conditions. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...BJS Short Term...RAS Long Term...CG Aviation...BTN