744 FXUS63 KDLH 060541 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1241 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 444 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Summary: Above average temperatures will persist through the period as rain chances increase for Friday through the weekend. High pressure was in place across the Northland this afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies. Low stratus remained present over western Lake Superior and along the North Shore but was continuing to erode as the afternoon progressed. Redevelopment of fog and low stratus is expected this evening. Guidance is pointing towards an earlier start for this near Lake Superior. However, these low ceilings should not be as far west as the past few nights as the high shifts east and the gradient becomes a bit tighter across western and central Minnesota. Dense fog looks likely once again tonight, especially near Lake Superior. The clouds and low stratus is expected to linger into the midday hours once again. A cutoff low will slowly move northward through the Mississippi Valley Thursday into Friday and push the upper ridge out of the region. A few showers will be possible Thursday afternoon with slightly better chances Thursday night into Friday. Models continue to differ on the track of the low with the ECMWF being the most bullish over the Northland while the GFS keeps most of the activity away from the CWA. In any case, little rainfall is expected from this low. A longwave trough will work across the Intermountain West and Rockies during this time as well with lee cyclogenesis occurring Friday night into Saturday. This low will track to the northeast for Saturday into Sunday. Confidence on this system is low with poor run to run consistency and drastic differences in the track and speed of the low. While there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday, widespread rainfall does not appear to be in the cards at this time. There still remains a chance for a few strong storms as well Saturday into Saturday night per the GFS solution. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period with highs in the 70s into the weekend before cooling into the 60s for Sunday and Monday. While cooler, this will still be above normal as normal highs would be in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021 Dense fog with IFR to LIFR ceilings is likely through the night and likely lingering through the morning at DLH/HIB, aided by onshore flow from Lake Superior. HYR may also see periods of fog and MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight and into Wednesday morning. INL/BRD will likely remain VFR tonight, though some brief periods of fog can't be completely ruled out. Fog will lift for the most part Wednesday afternoon, though some afternoon MVFR ceilings can't be ruled out at DLH. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. Winds may become breezy from the south at BRD/INL due to a tightening pressure gradient to the west Wednesday afternoon. Fog will likely develop again Wednesday night, especially near Lake Superior. && .MARINE... Issued at 948 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 Areas of fog, which will be dense near shorelines, is expected overnight through mid-morning Wednesday. Fog may redevelop Wednesday night. Aside from the fog, winds will be relatively light through the next several days, less than 10 knots. Stronger winds are possible this weekend as an area of low pressure moves through the region. Conditions may eventually become hazardous to smaller vessels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 52 67 55 69 / 0 0 0 10 INL 53 74 55 73 / 0 0 0 10 BRD 53 70 56 72 / 0 0 0 10 HYR 50 70 52 72 / 0 0 0 20 ASX 50 72 51 74 / 0 0 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012- 019>021-037. LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 142>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...JDS MARINE...Huyck