011 
FXUS64 KBRO 060525 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1225 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period under mostly clear skies. Light and variable winds become
easterly and increase only slightly during the afternoon hours 
before returning to light and variable. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate a
few mid to high level clouds across the western portions of CWA
early this evening. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the
Rio Grande Valley the rest of tonight into early Wednesday morning
as the 500mb low across the lower Mississippi River valley
continues to provide subsidence across south Texas tonight with
northwest flow aloft.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ 
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Due to a stationary
low pressure system situated to our east in the SE CONUS, dry air
will move into the CWA and eliminate any rain chances through the
short term period. This will also bring our dewpoints down giving
us comfortable evenings and pleasant day time highs. Max 
temperatures will be slightly above normal and lows will be 
slightly below normal due to the drier air aloft. Mostly sunny 
skies can be expected and winds will continue to be low to 
moderate from the north/northeast. As a ridge moves in from the 
west Wednesday, southerly flow returns with moisture slowly making
its way back to Deep South Texas. 

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A 500 mb low will be centered over the Middle 
Mississippi Valley to start the period, lifting into the Great 
Lakes by Friday into Saturday. At the same time, a 500 mb trough 
will develop over over eastern Pacific Ocean and traverse eastward
into the western US allowing a large 500 mb ridge to develop 
across Texas and Mexico. This will keep the region dry and 
temperatures will warm across the area with above normal 
temperatures expected for the weekend and into early next week. As
the western trough moves eastward through the weekend the ridge 
will weaken slightly across Texas allowing some low level moisture
return but will not be enough to produce elevated rain chances. 

MARINE (Now through Wednesday Night): Favorable marine 
conditions can be expected through the period. Northerly flow will 
turn southeasterly by Wednesday evening. Seas will remain at 2 to 3 
feet. 

Thursday through Tuesday: Surface ridging will persist over the 
Gulf maintaining low seas and light to moderate easterly winds 
through the end of the week. By late Saturday into Sunday the 
pressure gradient will begin to strengthen as a surface low pushes
into the Central and Southern Plains. While no Small Craft 
Advisories are expected at this time, winds could increase enough 
to warrant Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  87  69  87 /   0   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          69  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN            65  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              67  92  66  92 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      65  95  64  95 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  82  77  85 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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https://weather.gov/rgv

56-Hallman...Aviation