511 FXUS61 KOKX 060443 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1243 AM EDT Wed Oct 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to gradually build in from the north through Wednesday, then remain across the area through the end of the week. The high weakens and retreats to the northeast over the weekend as the next low pressure system approaches from the south Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Forecast essentially on track with a few minor adjustments to reflect latest observational trends. The main adjustment was to fine tune cloud cover through the overnight as a wedge of drier air is pushing south across far northeastern zones. High pressure builds aloft and at the surface the next couple of days. At the same time, residual low- level moisture remains at the base of a low- level inversion. Thus, looking at a mostly cloudy night with a light NE flow. The exception is across eastern CT zones where drier air on a N-NE trajectory where some clearing has set up. Overall the boundary layer looks sufficiently dry to inhibit the formation of fog, although cannot totally rule out some patchy fog where some clearing takes place. The low clouds across most of the region will put a lid on any radiational cooling with lows 5-10 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 50s across interior CT where there will be less clouds overall, to the lower 60s around the NYC/NJ metro. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The forecast dilemma this period is how far does the clearing work west on Wednesday as conditions dry out from NE to SW as high pressure continues to build south across New England and into the area. The low-level inversion gradually weakens with some drying of the airmass. However, there is still a subsidence inversion around 800 mb. A consensus approach brings the clearing across eastern portions of CT and LI in the morning and then into the remainder of the area in the afternoon. There is some evidence that clouds could hang up across western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley due to moisture pooling beneath the inversion. However, this is where the greatest uncertainty resides. Lows clouds could expand eastward from this area during Wednesday night along with some patchy fog. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows Wednesday night in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Both highs and lows will be above normal, especially with respect to overnight lows. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday through Friday will remain dry as upper level ridging from the western Atlantic remains in place. This will keep an upper trough and associated upper low west of the area. The upper ridge begins to weaken and move slowly east during the day Saturday, allowing the trough to approach the region. Meanwhile, another surface high starts to build north of the region. The trend over the last 24 hours has leaned towards a more dry forecast this weekend. With the approach of the trough, the surface high should keep things mostly dry, especially earlier on in the weekend. Will only keep some slight chance POPs in he forecast for Saturday, and this will be limited to the western sections of CWA. Will increase POPs to chance on Saturday night and Sunday, however I would not be surprised if those POPS were lowered in subsequent forecasts. Slight chance POPS continue into the first part of next week with the trough over head and the potential for another low to approach. Temperatures through the period will be above normal. The warmest days will Thursday and Friday with the most sunshine. Highs will be in the lower to middle 70s. More clouds over the weekend should lead to highs in the upper 60s to around 70s degrees. Temperatures warm into lower and middle 70s to start next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds southward into the area thru Wed. MVFR cigs should hang on most of tonight. Cigs could lift to VFR at KGON after midnight tonight and KBDR/KISP at 14Z, but it may take the NYC metros til early afternoon to go VFR, and KSWF til late afternoon. NE winds blw 10kt should shift SE-S along the coast during the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD likely for changing flight categories thru 18Z Wed. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night through Friday...VFR. .Saturday and Sunday...Chance of showers with MVFR conditions possible at times. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure will build in from the north the next couple of days with decreasing winds and seas. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the waters through the end of the week. A strong pressure gradient is likely to develop on Saturday leading to potential of SCA gusts on the ocean. The non ocean waters should stay below 25 kt, but if the gradient ends up being stronger then SCA conditions could also occur there. Ocean seas should also build to 5-6 ft on Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...JE/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...BG MARINE...BC/DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW