014 
FXUS63 KTOP 060408
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1108 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

Cloud cover was increasing from the east early this afternoon as 
increased moisture pushes west between high pressure centered to 
the northeast and a weak low under a modest cutoff low over 
northwest Mississippi. Local visual observations showing the 
initial cumuliform cloud spreading into a stratus deck with time. 
The increased moisture and cloud cover should lead to warmer 
overnight period tonight. Subsequent shifts will need to monitor 
the cloud fields overnight with light surface winds leading to the
potential for some ground fog formation in areas of persistent 
clearing. Western areas may see more clearing though dewpoints 
should be lower there. Given recent cloud trends have opted to 
keep any mention out. The upper low retrogrades north-northwest 
into Wednesday evening and brings deeper moisture into eastern 
Kansas. Can't quite rule out any shower activity late Wednesday 
into early Thursday, with enough model agreement for some mention 
in the eastern row of counties Wednesday afternoon. Highs 
Wednesday should be tempered by the cloud, reaching the mid 70s, 
and a bit warmer Thursday under more sun. 

The Thursday night into Saturday periods feature warm-air advection 
as the Missouri low moves off and is replaced by southwest flow. 
Models are very similar with highs back into the middle 80s Friday 
and upper 80s to around 90 Saturday under rather extreme early 
October low/mid level temps, with record highs possible and some 
potential for elevated fire weather conditions. Upper energy to the 
southwest ejects in pieces over the weekend, with a cold front and 
shortwave energy working through at some point Sunday into early 
Monday for some chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms. An 
upper low taking shape over the western states is progged to eject 
northeast in the middle of next week, though given recent flow 
patterns, confidence in when and how far east it will move is not 
high. Have stayed with model blend precip chances. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) 
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

Recent satellite imagery has shown more breaks in the mid level 
clouds and as a result have already added a mention of MVFR 
visibilities with some ground fog. Forecast soundings from the RAp
and NAM suggests the boundary layer will begin mixing out between
14Z and 15Z. There is still some cloud cover so confidence in IFR
visibilities is to low to include in the forecast. But given the 
nature of radiational fog, it is not out of the question. Think a 
stratocu deck will persist into the afternoon Wednesday as 
moisture wraps around the upper low. CIGS should remain VFR. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...65
AVIATION...Wolters