905 FXUS64 KSHV 060356 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1056 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021 .UPDATE... A closed upper level low will continue to shift northward into Arkansas overnight. Expect some wrap around clouds across the northern half of the region tonight, but dry conditions will prevail. Decided to lower overnight temps a couple degrees based on trends. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track. /20/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ AVIATION... For the 05/00Z TAF update...VFR conditions to prevail through most of the period. Can't rule out some patchy fog developing around 05/09z at KMLU and possible KELD. But, this fog should lift by 05/15z, with VFR conditions and sct CU prevailing through the remainder of the period. Calm to light/variable winds tonight will become north-northwesterly between 5 to 10 kts tomorrow. /20/ && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Dry, seasonally warm conditions will be maintained across the Ark-La-Tex along the southwestern periphery of the upper-level low as it begins to move northeast and away from the area. The effect of this movement will impact the area as soon as tonight, with winds slackening to calm and variable area wide, allowing radiational cooling to take a more robust effect. This keeps overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and will boost the potential for patchy fog by the early morning hours, especially in our eastern zones. By Wednesday, the upper-level low will continue to shift north across the lower Mississippi Valley near Arkansas and Tennessee, continuing to shift northeast at a faster speed as it begins to be returned back into the mean flow by a robust Pacific ridge approaching the Baja California peninsula. Light northerly winds could shift to westerly in northern zones around the Ouachita Mountains, however, the main theme of dry, near-average temperatures continues for Wednesday with afternoon highs in the lower 80s in our northeastern zones and mid-to-upper 80s expected elsewhere. With the center of the upper-level low shifting well north of the Arkansas/Louisiana border by then, the better instability and moisture for showers and thunderstorms will also travel north (just outside of our northern zones), leaving Wednesday afternoon nearly completely dry. Similar conditions return once again on Wednesday night with calm winds and clear skies allowing near average temperatures above the 60-degree mark south of the I-20 corridor, and below the 60-degree mark north of I-20, while patchy fog cannot be ruled out by then as well. /16/ LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/ The first chance of rain in the long term period will come Sunday night into Monday as a weak front and the southern fringe of an upper level disturbance pivots across the Four State region. Agreement among operational models and ensembles has increased with regard to this solution with the 12Z cycle and chances of rain were increased over the blended model solution (NBM) in at least the northwest half of zones. If model agreement continues to solidify then expect chances of rain to probably greatly increase over the currently advertised range from 20 to 30 percent. Some thunderstorms will be possible in this scenario, especially north of I-20. There will likely not yet be enough synoptic ingredients for severe storms in this scenario, but some strong storms containing small hail, brief gusty winds, and frequent lightning certainly cannot be ruled out in northern zones. We are not expecting much of a cool down behind this front, although temperatures will probably briefly be brought back closer to normal. But before this time, upper level ridging in the wake of the short term's upper low will foster high and low temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above what they generally should be for this time of year. Fortunately, low level moisture will probably not start increasing much until Sunday, so real-feel afternoon temperatures will be very close to the expected absolute high temperatures in a range from the upper 80s to lower 90s from Thursday through Sunday. /50/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 62 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 61 83 62 87 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 58 84 58 88 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 61 84 62 88 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 58 82 59 85 / 10 10 0 0 TYR 61 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 59 86 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 60 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 20