329 
FXUS63 KGLD 060345
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
945 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021

Based on local research, the pattern is looking favorable for the
potential of blowing dust to develop Tuesday afternoon, mainly 
along and west of the Kansas-Colorado border. Blowing dust would 
potentially come into the area from the southwest. Confidence is 
low at this time of blowing dust occurring since this is seven 
days away. October is a prime month for blowing dust events in the
Goodland area of responsibility. Stay tuned for further updates.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Morning) 
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021

RAP analysis shows the Tri-State area in high pressure with a broad 
low over the Mississippi Valley and a trough approaching the Four 
Corners region. Clear skies will exist thanks to the high pressure 
for the rest of the day and through the night as afternoon highs 
will be in the 80s. Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns 
remain mainly west of Highway 27 through the remainder of the 
afternoon as RH values fall into the lower 20s to upper teens this 
afternoon; any near critical area look to remain across east 
Colorado where winds are slightly breezier and RH's are lower. 
Tonight, low level moisture will slowly increase from the eastern 
low as winds remain out of the SSE around 10 knots or less. For this 
package overnight lows were raised slightly to account for the 
moisture advection as this should limit how much overnight 
temperatures fall due to radiational cooling via the lack of cloud 
cover. Widespread lows in the 40s are expected but wouldn't be 
surprised if a few locales in lower lying regions fall into the 
upper 30s. 

Wednesday, the low from the east drifts slowly to the west as the 
trough over the western CONUS moves NE towards the Rockies. These 
two synoptic features look to collide roughly over western Kansas 
where a tight pressure gradient develops. Forecast soundings 
indicate near 30 knots of wind through out the mixing level, which 
should have no problem transporting to the surface due to the clear 
skies. Winds will be noticeably breezy as sustained winds of 15 
knots with gusts up to 30 knots likely. Elevated to near critical 
fire weather again looks possible albeit the more moist airmass, 
even though RH values over east Colorado fall into the lower 20s. 
Another feature to keep an eye on is the trough from the west as a
weak shortwave is associated, as it sparks some showers over the 
Front Range Wednesday afternoon. A slight eastward shift with the 
overall trough may create enough lift for a stray shower or two 
across east Colorado during the late afternoon/ early evening 
hours due to the shortwave as the increase in overall moisture in 
conjunction may create enough lift. Confidence in this scenario 
is low and not high enough to introduce showers into the forecast 
at this time. Highs for Wednesday look to be in the upper 70s to 
low 80s and overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s as some 
clouds move in from the west. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 110 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021

Westerly flow aloft.. on the northern periphery of a broad upper 
level ridge situated over the Central/Southern Plains.. will back 
to the SW late this week (Fri-Sat) as a broad upper trough 
progresses ashore the Pacific Coast. The aforementioned trough is 
anticipated to progress east across the central CONUS during the 
weekend. By late weekend.. guidance suggests that robust shortwave
energy will dig SE-SSE ashore the PAC NW.. amplifying into a 
robust upper low invof the 4-Corners early next week.

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are likely to 
persist through Friday (perhaps into Saturday). With an 
increasingly unsettled synoptic pattern, expect cooler 
temperatures and increased cloud cover late this weekend -- along
with above average chances for precipitation early next week.
At this range.. confidence is very low with regard to 
precipitation chances/amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 942 PM MDT Tue Oct 5 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK. Southeasterly winds generally under 10kts overnight will
increase to around 12-16kts gusting to 24kts by mid-day. After
sunset, winds will ease back to 9-13kts from the southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AW
SHORT TERM...TT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...AW