644 FXUS63 KJKL 060301 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1101 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 PM EDT TUE OCT 5 2021 Overall, the forecast is progressing well. Only minor tweaks needed based on obs and recent trends. Updates along with new zones have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 834 PM EDT TUE OCT 5 2021 Things remain relatively quiet so far this evening. There's a few very isolated showers in our CWA, but the more scattered activity has been keeping off to our west and east. Guidance was hinting at some more activity developing into the evening, but so far, has been overdoing it slightly based on recent trends, so felt comfortable lowering PoPs some for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the forecast was in good shape, and the only additional edits were to blend in recent obs. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 505 PM EDT TUE OCT 5 2021 A closed low will be in place across Arkansas and driving our weather through the short term. This is allowing southerly flow into the region on the east side of the low, advecting moisture northward into the state. The result is scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon, migrating from SE to NW. These will continue to some degree through the short term as the upper level low remains somewhat stationary, eventually migrating to southern Missouri by Wednesday night. Southerly flow will also keep temperatures above normal as well, with highs in the mid and upper 70s today and Wednesday, and lows staying somewhat mild in the low to mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Pops will actually ramp up at the very end of the short term late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as the low begins to progress northward more. WPC does have much of the south-central portion of the state in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday. Instability is decent, especially during the first part of the day Wednesday, but mid and upper level lapse rates aren't the best, and with southerly flow through much of the column, and winds backing eastward throughout the second part of the afternoon, this does not lend itself to strong storm development. Which is likely why SPC does not have us in anything more than a general thunder category. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 401 PM EDT TUE OCT 5 2021 Starting the extended in the upper levels, ridging will be in place both across the upper northeast and Western Mexico, with a closed low across the Mid Mississippi Valley. With time, this low will open into a larger negatively tiled trough and propagate east across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region. With this positioned to our west, ample moisture will be in place. PW's will be around 1.5" (nearly +2 SD for this time of the year) with long skinny CAPE up to 1500 J/kg. Because of this, areas of localized flash flooding in association with training storms is possible, specifically along the western half of the CWA where conditions are more favorable and closer to the low. Into the weekend, upper level ridging will expand east, raising heights across Eastern Kentucky and bringing a brief stint of dry weather to the area late weekend. A surface warm front will then push out of the Southern Plains and through the Ohio River Valley, as a low traverses east along the USA/Canadian border. This surface low, in association with an upper level shortwave, will bring some renewed rain/storm chances early next week. Guidance uncertainty grows with this next system, as the GFS suggests the quickest arrival time than compared to the ECMWF. Because of these differences and time length in the forecast, have steered toward the blend. Sensible weather will generally feature temperatures above average through the period. Highs will range in the mid 70s Thursday and Friday, and then warm into the upper 70s and low 80s through the weekend. Similarly, lows will be in the low 60s overnight Thursday, dropping into the low to mid 50s overnight Friday and Saturday. The approaching trough will then increase cloud cover into the early work week, resulting in lesser ridge/valley split opportunities and slightly warmer overnight temps. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT TUE OCT 5 2021 VFR conditions prevail going into the evening as quiet weather continues under generally mostly cloudy skies. A few isolated showers can be seen dotted over the area, but most of the activity has held off to our east and west. Eventually, rain chances are expected to increase roughly from the south to the north late tonight, before continuing to ramp up even further through the day Wednesday. Ceilings should continue to stay above VFR thresholds, ranging generally from 6000 to 10000 ft through the period. Winds are expected to stay light and variable through the night. Wednesday afternoon, winds will be out the east/southeast, but still remain light around 5 kts or less. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAS SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...HAS