299 
FXUS64 KOHX 060244
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
944 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Radar imagery this evening shows numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms across our southwest counties. This activity is
occurring along an axis of moisture convergence on the east side
of an upper level low centered south of Memphis. As the upper low
begins shifting northward overnight and Wednesday, several waves
of showers and thunderstorms will spread northward across Middle
Tennessee through the night and most of tomorrow, while gradually
shifting eastward with time. Focused moisture convergence could 
lead to additional heavy rainfall and localized flooding in some 
areas tonight and tomorrow, similar to what we've seen tonight 
across Lawrence County. In addition, low level shear is forecast
to increase to around 20 knots on Wednesday afternoon/evening 
with MLCAPE also rising into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. This 
indicates more rotating cells will be possible tomorrow, similar 
to what the latest HRRR updraft helicity shows. Have updated all 
grids/zones based on latest obs and model guidance, with high 
likely/categorical pops for most of the area tonight and 
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Isolated showers and storms could impact TAF sites off and on
throughout the overnight hours. Expect reduced visibilities and
cigs due to both rain and fog early Wednesday morning. Small 
improvements in flying conditions are expected after 13z, through 
MVFR cigs may linger into the afternoon hours. Winds will be 
around 5 to 10 knots generally out of the east, unless a storm 
moves directly over a terminal, in which case some gusty winds 
will be possible.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........11