067 FXUS61 KRNK 060023 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 823 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will stall over the Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast states through at least Friday. This will create periods of clouds, showers, and thunderstorms for our region through Saturday. As this storm system weakens and moves northeast, the chance of rain will diminish. Drier weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday... Unsettled weather will continue tonight into Wednesday... MSAS and LAPS analysis still showing a region of instability between Roanoke and Buckingham. Expect the clusters of showers and thunderstorms tracking north to hold together through at least 02Z/10PM. Areas of fog and low clouds will develop tonight into Wednesday morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the piedmont. With the upper low rotating to our west transporting moisture into our region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday with the best coverage in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 60s in the northwest mountains to the lower 80s in the piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM EDT Tuesday... Showery weather continues through the end of the week... Upper-level low to our west continues to meander through Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure wedges south along the mountains with easterly flow drawing in Atlantic moisture. This will result in continued showers/drizzle and low clouds. Rain could be heavy at times especially along the Blue Ridge where upslope enhancement is favored. Cut back on rainfall totals slightly to align better with updated guidance as the trend in rainfall amounts seem to be trending slightly downward. Temperatures expected to remain near normal during the day and above normal overnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Monday... Showers for the weekend give way to drier weather for the beginning of next week... Closed upper-low is consolidated within an elongated trough over the eastern seaboard. Should still see some rain extending along this as moisture is still being pulled north on Saturday. Saturday likely to have the best overall coverage, tapering down for Sunday through Tuesday. Left some some slight chances in through Tuesday, but most locations likely to remain dry on Monday and Tuesday. With less rain/clouds around, expecting temperatures to warm above normal moving into the first of next week. Overnight lows remain mild. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibility was moving north across Virginia this evening and will be north of KROA, KBCB and KLYH by 02Z/10PM. Little additional chance of rain is expected for area TAF sites for the rest of the evening. Areas of fog and stratus will become widespread across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia after midnight. Higher elevations of the Blue Ridge mountains, where ridges will be in the clouds throughout the morning. Widespread MVFR and patchy LIFR visibility due to fog is expected in the 08Z/4AM to 12Z/8AM time frame. Based on gridded LAMP guidance and Bufkit forecast soundings, most of the fog will mix out by noon, however there will be be a much slower lifting of ceilings. Most TAFs sites will improve back to MVFR by mid afternoon. Average confidence in ceilings,visibilities and wind. Extended Aviation Discussion... The potential for Sub-VFR conditions will continue until the end of the week. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist due to an easterly wind pumping deep moisture into the central Appalachians. Drier air is expected come into our region Saturday night with mainly dry and VFR weather continuing into Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...BMG LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...AMS/KK