194 
FXUS64 KMEG 060006
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
706 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021

.UPDATE...
See aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Oct 5 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Satellite trends place an upper level low
over West Central Mississippi. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends
have indicated showers and a few thunderstorms have developed 
around this upper level low with the best coverage occurring over
North Mississippi thus far. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across
the Mid-South are in the 70s to lower 80s with the cooler
temperatures associated with recent rainfall over the past hour or
two. 

Short term model trends including Convective Allowing Model
solution trends indicate showers and a few thunderstorm chances 
will continue across the forecast area for the remainder of the
afternoon into at least early this evening before gradually
diminishing in coverage for the remainder of the night. Moderately
steep 700-500 mb layer mid-level lapse rates, cold air aloft due 
to the upper level low and mixed layer CAPE values between 
1500-2000 J/kg may result in the development of a few strong 
thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm. Marginally
large hail will be the main threat if any thunderstorms can reach
severe limits.

This aforementioned upper level low is expected to gradually
retrograde a bit northwest into Arkansas on Wednesday. Additional
showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated to develop
especially during daytime heating. A few strong thunderstorms
producing small hail may be possible towards the Tennessee River 
on Wednesday if cloud cover isn't as widespread as forecast and
instability can be realized. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in
the middle to upper 80s.

Rain free weather is expected to gradually return by Thursday
night as the upper level low moves northeast away from the Lower
Mississippi Valley and high pressure builds back into the area. 
Temperatures will gradually warm back into the lower to middle 80s
into the upcoming weekend. 

Long term models indicate another mid-level trough will rotate
through the region early next week, bringing yet another chance
for showers/thunderstorms back to the area. 

CJC

AVIATION...

Scattered showers and storms will continue through the evening
hours. An upper low is slowly moving across the area and this will
keep showers and a few storms around through the overnight hours.
This will also keep cloud cover around and varying cig heights
over the region as well. Expect VFR to IFR conditions throughout
the night as things remain somewhat unstable across the area. Most
guidance shows that MVFR conditions will be the rule for
Wednesday with a few showers possible in the afternoon hours. I
expect most of the convection to be concentrated to the east
Wednesday afternoon. I did not have the confidence to put in VCSH
in TAFs for most places tomorrow. Will have to monitor going
forward. 

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$