982 FXUS64 KMAF 041727 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Light winds out of the southeast will gradually shift to southwest overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 An upper level trough is centered over the Midwest and an upper ridge is over the Rocky Mountains. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are in between the upper ridge and trough with mostly westerly flow aloft. Surface winds across the area will be light and somewhat variable. Temperatures today will be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the 80s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and 60s. A portion of the upper trough gets cutoff from the upper flow and develops a cutoff low over the Arkansas/Mississippi border on Tuesday. Another upper low will be over Southern California with West Texas and Southeast New Mexico remaining in the middle of these two features. Temperatures on Tuesday will be similar or slightly warmer than today. No precipitation is expected across the area today and Tuesday && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Oct 4 2021 Wed thru the weekend will be dominated by a mid-level ridge aloft and its attendant positive temperature anomalies. There are some differences in deterministic models wrt just how warm it will be with GFS developing s-se winds of 15-20 mph Fri-Sat across the PB, ergo surface trof/low-level thermal ridge farther w than ECMWF. Based on the wly component in the 7h-5h layer we tend agree with the warmer ECMWF which indicates high temps 10-15 degrees above normal Sat, close to record highs. Thereafter timing differences have been resolved somewhat between the ECMWF and GFS wrt passage of a srn stream shrtwv trof Sun. For now this sets up Sat 9th and Sun 10th next week as the favored fire wx days and Mon with an assocd dry cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 55 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 59 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 77 58 77 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 56 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 49 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 59 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 60 87 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 58 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...80 LONG TERM....49 AVIATION...91