936 FXUS63 KMQT 011913 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 313 PM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2021 Dense fog has moved into the central and eastern parts of the CWA as shown by the GOES-16 Night Fog product and various MDOT cameras. Also, temps have remained fairly warm across the area, with some spots already bottoming out this morning as fog or cloud cover sets in. The high pressure ridge over us is progressively decaying this morning, and looks to continue to do so throughout the short term period. Meanwhile, a shortwave over the Northern Plains this morning is currently producing rainfall over MN and bringing cloud cover over western Lake Superior. This shortwave should continue riding northward today along the decaying ridge, bringing cloud cover across the western CWA early this morning. The CONSShort model (which looks to have a good handle on the fog coverage across the area this morning) has fog ending over Lake MI, northern Green Bay, and the U.P. late this morning. Given that the model was producing patchy fog over Lake Superior into the afternoon hours today, decided to delete fog mentions from around noon eastern time until near midnight tonight as I believe those visibility reductions given by the CONSshort are more related to rainfall rates than actual fog this afternoon and early evening. As the shortwave over the Northern Plains continues northward today, it should run into another shortwave over northern Ontario that is moving southeast. Therefore, it looks like the placement of the greatest rainfall amounts today and tonight look to be over the Arrowhead and Lake Superior, as the two shortwaves look to do a clockwise 'pivot' over Lake Superior today and tonight. Given this, the northern U.P. and the west look like they will have the better coverage for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight; spots in the south central could be dry today and tonight. Given the weak forcing from the shortwave and modest instability (models have MUCAPEs ranging from 500 to over 1000 J/kg today into tonight), thinking we could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms. That being said, don't really think we will see any severe weather as bulk shear is pretty low; thinking its most likely that these storms will probably just be some rumbles of thunder with some rain. Expect another warm day today and a very warm night tonight. Should see the east and central CWA be warmer today as these areas are expected to become cloudy later in the day; the west should be slightly cooler today due to cloud cover moving in earlier. Cloud coverage tonight (a maybe some slight WAA) should make low temps rather warm; could see lows only getting into the upper 50s in the interior. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 313 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2021 Weak front and surface wave will sag south of the area Saturday night but will remain close enough to cause a few showers that will linger into Sunday especially for central and eastern areas. While it definitely will not be a washout there could be a shower at almost anytime from Saturday night through Sunday. Cloudy skies and light north winds will keep temperatures from recovering much on Sunday...but they should still be close or even a degree or two above their early October normals. Beyond Sunday...rising heights over the Upper Great Lakes into northern Ontario and Quebec will lead to another extended stretch of dry and unseasonably mild weather for much of next week. While not as warm as the last few days temperatures will consistently average 5-10 degrees above normal mainly in the mid to upper 60s during the day...perhaps even lower 70s by late in the work week...a far cry from the cold and snowy October from last year. Rain chances will be minimal through the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 142 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2021 VFR flight categories are anticipated this afternoon and evening for all terminals. Cloud cover will increase over KIWD and KCMX this afternoon, with lowering cigs as time goes on. A weather disturbance will be approaching the area, resulting in VCSH for IWD and CMX this afternoon, potentially a nearby rumble of thunder creating VCTS for the western TAF sites. Expect VCSH to make it to SAW this evening. By 5Z/6Z, visibility will decrease for all TAF sites to create low end MVFR for the overnight hours. MIFG may be briefly possible where more persistent rain showers occur this evening/overnight, but confidence is low, so have left this out of TAF sites. MVFR conditions for all terminals during the overnight period will fluctuate down to IFR at times as the weather disturbance moves through the region on Saturday. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2021 Expect winds to remain 20 kts or less for the forecast period as shortwave troughing looks to dominate this weekend. There is chance that we could see some north to northeasterly gusts up to 25 kts Saturday afternoon and night as low pressure wave moves across Upper MI. High pressure ridging should move over the lake early next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...BW MARINE...TAP