136 FXUS65 KTFX 290900 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 29 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably cool temperatures rebound to slightly above average for Thursday, before the next Pacific system brings another slight cool down and a chance for showers Friday and Saturday. Then high pressure looks to build in for mostly mild and dry conditions through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday night...Yesterday's cold front has brought seasonably chilly temperatures in the 20s and 30s over the southwest this morning, while continued westerly breezes have helped maintain 40+ degree readings for most north-central locations. Skies have mostly cleared out, but lower clouds may linger along and west of the Divide through mid-morning. Expect a cool, dry, and breezy day today, with westerly winds mostly in the 10 to 20 mph range. Weak transient ridging moves in tonight, which will maintain mostly clear skies and similarly chilly lows as tonight. Lee side troughing will likely keep at least some nighttime breezes going along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains. On Thursday, very dry conditions are expected as temperatures warm back to the 70s for most locations. Southwesterly winds will gust in the 15 to 25 mph range at times, with higher gusts likely along the Rocky Mountain Front. Slightly milder temperatures can be expected for tonight, though the wind protected higher valleys of the southwest Friday through next Wednesday...The next shortwave enters the Pacific Northwest early on Friday, before weakening and continuing eastward into the Northern Rockies later Friday into Saturday. This will bring another brief cool down, along with a chance for showers. Most ensemble guidance QPF amounts range from a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth over north-central MT, with even spottier amounts in the southwest. PWATs as high as three quarters of an inch and modest instability could bring a few thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and night. Weak ridging replaces the departing trough by Saturday night for warming and drier conditions Sunday into early next week. Ensembles hint that slightly cooler and unsettled conditions may return the mid- to late next week. -RCG && .AVIATION... 1140 PM MDT Tue Sep 28 2021 (29/06Z TAF period) Primarily VFR conditions expected for this TAF period, but there will be some lingering 6 - 10 kft clouds through 29/16Z, especially in the southwest and along the Divide. Westerly breezes up to 25 kts can be expected for the north-central terminals tonight and on Wednesday, though there will be a brief period of lighter winds between 09 and 15Z. -RCG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 63 35 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 59 33 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 63 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 59 27 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 54 15 61 20 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 57 27 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 66 35 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 60 33 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls